Left Menu
Development News Edition

WEC 24: Global energy demand on track to peak between 2020 and 2025

New World Energy Scenarios discuss three plausible pathways to 2040 focusing on the impact of “disruptive innovation” on the energy system. 

Devdiscourse News Desk | Abu Dhabi | Updated: 10-09-2019 17:53 IST | Created: 09-09-2019 22:09 IST
WEC 24: Global energy demand on track to peak between 2020 and 2025
Press Conference of World Energy Council on September 9, 2019 during the 24th World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi Image Credit: Devdiscourse

On the first day of the 24th World Energy Congress 2019 in Abu Dhabi, the World Energy Council in collaboration with Accenture Strategy and the Paul Scherrer Institute launched an updated World Energy Scenarios report. Among the key findings, per capita, energy demand projected to peak before 2030 and innovative net-zero carbon pathways include hydrogen. The scenarios provide energy leaders with a clear strategic framework for navigating 'disruption-as- usual' and offer a platform to support a rigorous global strategic dialogue on the future of the energy system.

Launched today during the 24th World Energy Congress in Abu Dhabi, UAE the World Energy Scenarios 2019 report provides an update of the Council's global energy scenarios, presenting plausible pathways to 2040 with a focus on the broad and fast-shifting landscape of innovation. The three musically-named scenarios are: Modern Jazz, which represents a 'digitally disrupted,' and market-driven innovative world; Unfinished Symphony, a future in which more 'intelligent' and circular economic growth models drive clean, affordable and sustainable energy transition; and, Hard Rock, which explores the consequences of inward-looking policies and weaker and unsustainable economic growth, in a more fragmented world.

The updated World Energy Scenarios provide new insights into the broader and fast-shifting landscape of innovation, which is emerging from within and beyond the energy system and includes not only new energy technologies but also policy, business model and social innovations. The scenarios highlight how different combinations of innovation accelerators – "the Constellations of Disruptions "– might trigger and scale to enable alternative energy pathways and disrupt existing value chains.

The report includes new storylines to 2040, supporting systems maps, comparative analysis on energy implications, six regional perspectives, as well as illustrative quantification, on an aggregated global and regional basis.

Key highlights and energy system implications

Global primary energy demand momentum remains in line with the 2016 scenario modelling, with per capita energy demand projected to peak in the 2020s. Electrification extends to more uses and users, driving decarbonisation rates; however, the question of hard-to-abate sectors and non-electrified uses remains open.

A new mobility revolution, which is dependent on infrastructure, is gathering momentum with the potential to disrupt the entire energy landscape in the longer term. Energy efficiency gains are critical to manage energy demand from industrial, residential and commercial sectors and to avoid reducing climate change momentum. New opportunities are emerging to provide energy-plus services in an increasingly consumer-centric energy system. Infrastructure innovation and investment, and proactive policies are necessary to secure affordable decarbonisation and socially just energy transitions. New net-zero carbon pathways, including hydrogen, and carbon abatement mechanisms emerge and start to scale by 2040. Achieving Paris Agreement targets remains elusive, with none of the 2019 scenarios meeting the 2°C target agreed to in the UNFCC Paris Agreement.

Dr. Angela Wilkinson, Senior Director, Scenarios and Business Insights, World Energy Council said, "Signals of all the three world energy scenarios – Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony and Hard Rock – have been detected in all regions. By using these tools, energy leaders can realize the drive to thrive in an era of disruption and design energy pathways for prosperity, people and planet,".

Explaining it further Mr. Muqsit Ashraf, Senior Managing Director, Accenture Strategy, Energy, said, "Disruptive innovation is driving change in the energy system at an unprecedented scale and pace". He further added, "Our new Energy Scenarios highlight the impact of technology, policy, social, and business model changes on the demand and supply side. Our report suggests that under plausible scenarios, the climate targets are elusive. To achieve competitive agility and manage the economic, environmental and social objectives of the new energy system, industry leaders will have to double down on their response to challenges from peak demand and value, managing emissions, investing in infrastructure, and unleashing digital systemwide".

Dr. Tom Kober, Head of the Energy Economic Group of the Paul Scherrer Institute emphasizes that the transformation of the energy economy is a systemic challenge where interdependencies between technologies, actors, markets and the environment play a decisive role on how new energy structures emerge and how successful future energy and climate goals will be achieved". Mr. Ged Davis, Executive Chair Scenarios, World Energy Council, concluded, "Technological innovation, climate change and more tense geopolitics are disrupting the world of energy. These world energy scenarios provide the perfect tool for assessing these macro-uncertainties and crafting a strategic response for your enterprise."

For more news, views and interview, please visit Live Discourse

(Siddheshwar Shukla and Neeraj Singh Mehta, Team Devdiscourse from Abu Dhabi)



South Africa's COVID-19 response: Surprising outcomes or just poor data management?

South Africa has been committed to improving its health information system and shows that a robust digital has considerable scope to improve healthcare for the entire population. But the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted that significant ga...

Post-COVID-19 Nigeria needs a robust Health Management Information System to handle high disease burden

Nigeria is among a few countries that conceptualised a health management information system HMIS in the early 90s but implementation has been a challenge till date. Besides COVID-19, the country has a huge burden of communicable and non-com...

Morocco COVID-19 response: A fragile health system and the deteriorating situation

Learning from its European neighbors, Morocco imposed drastic measures from the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak to try to contain its spread. The strategy worked for a few months but the cases have surged after mid-June. In this sit...

COVID-19: Argentina’s health system inefficiencies exaggerate flaws of health information system

You can recover from a drop in the GDP, but you cant recover from death, was the straightforward mindset of Argentinas President Alberto Fernndez and defined the countrys response to COVID-19. The South American nation imposed a strict...


Latest News

Food loss and waste ‘an ethical outrage’, UN chief says on International Day

Last year, the UN General Assembly designated 29 September as the International Day, recognizing the fundamental role that sustainable food production plays in promoting food security and nutrition and highlighting the essential need to red...

UK PM unveils free college courses plan for COVID-hit workers

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday set out plans for a radical change to the countrys education system by offering free college-level courses to benefit those hit by the adverse effects of the coronavirus lockdown. Making a referenc...

IPL 13: Delhi Capitals wins toss, opts to bowl first against SRH

Delhi Capitals have won the toss and opted to bowl first against Sunrisers Hyderabad SRH here at Sheikh Zayed Stadium on Tuesday. Delhi Capitals have won their two matches and the side is leading the points table while SRH have still not op...

DIARY-Political and General News Events from Sept. 29

For other diaries, please seePolitical and General News Top Economic EventsEmerging Markets Economic Events Government Debt AuctionsU.S. Federal Reserve Today in Washington---------------------------------------------------------------- Thi...

Give Feedback