United warns travel demand will languish until COVID-19 vaccine

Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines, which offered cash buyouts, have reported strong employee response for voluntary departures, meaning they could have a less costly workforce on the other side of the crisis since union contracts force airlines to furlough junior workers first. Shares of United, which will hold a conference call at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, were flat after the bell.

United Airlines Holdings Inc warned on Tuesday that travel demand will remain suppressed until there is a widely accepted treatment or vaccine for COVID-19, which plunged the carrier to a deep quarterly loss on Tuesday. U.S. airlines are scrambling to adjust operations to hard-hit demand as COVID-19 infections surge, forcing some U.S. states to scale back reopening plans and reinstate quarantines.

The setback does not bode well for airline jobs in the fall, when a U.S. government stimulus package expires. To avoid furloughs, airlines have rolled out a number of packages to encourage employees to leave voluntarily. Chicago-based United said more than 6,000 employees had opted for such packages. But after sending 36,000 notices of potential furloughs earlier this month, that relatively low take-up suggests United might have to furlough a significant number of workers.

Airline unions have urged lawmakers to pass another round of aid through March, but airlines say they are not counting on fresh funds. Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines, which offered cash buyouts, have reported strong employee response for voluntary departures, meaning they could have a less costly workforce on the other side of the crisis since union contracts force airlines to furlough junior workers first.

Shares of United, which will hold a conference call at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, were flat after the bell. With the timing of a recovery uncertain, investor focus has turned to airlines' cash on hand and their ability to pick up demand once it returns.

United had $15.2 billion in liquidity as of July 20 and reiterated its forecast for liquidity to top $18 billion at the end of September. The airline burned through about $40 million per day in the second quarter but sees that amount slowing to roughly $25 million in the third quarter as it matches its flight schedule to demand, flying about 35% of its 2019 summer schedule.

United, which is not blocking middle seats, is forecasting a load factor of about 45% in July after its planes flew about one-third full in the second quarter. The airline, which is more exposed than peers to harder-hit international travel, reported an adjusted net loss of $2.6 billion for the June quarter, or a $9.31 per-share loss, versus a $4.21 per-share profit a year ago, as revenue dropped 87% to $1.475 billion.

Analysts on average expected a loss of $9.02 per share and revenue of $1.321 billion, according to data from Refinitiv. Still, United Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a statement he believed the quarterly losses and cash burn were lower than large network competitors.

Delta said last week it was burning about $27 million a day in June and July. American Airlines and Southwest report on Thursday.