Singapore economists see 2026 growth at 5%, central bank survey says

Economists polled by Singapore's ​central bank have upgraded their growth ​outlook for the country for ‌2026 while ​making slight cuts to their inflation forecasts, a survey showed on Wednesday.

Around half of the respondents in the ‌Monetary Authority of Singapore's September quarter survey cited a prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East as one of the major downside risks for the city-state, while 29.4% of ‌the economists flagged the potential bursting of the AI bubble. The survey was sent ‌out in August with 25 economists and analysts responding.

The median forecast for growth this year increased to 5%, up from 3.5% in the previous survey in June, with growth in 2027 projected at ⁠3.1%, up ​from 2.5%. Singapore's economy ⁠grew 5.9% in the second quarter, beating expectations.

In August, the trade ministry raised its growth forecast to 4.5% ⁠to 5.5% for 2026, from 2.0% to 4.0%. Respondents forecast core inflation for 2026 at ​1.9% and headline inflation at 2.1%, lower than the respective 2% and 2.3% projected ⁠in the previous survey.

Inflation rose 2.0% in July from a year earlier, and the central bank ⁠warned ​that it would stay elevated through the first half of next year. The central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy in late July, citing persistent inflationary risks from ⁠the Middle East conflict, which has driven up energy costs.

Of the respondents, 45% expected the ⁠slope of ⁠the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band to be increased at the October monetary policy review, while the rest said it ‌was likely ‌to remain unchanged.