Rising fuel prices revive cost-of-living pressure in Nigeria ahead of 2027 election

Nigeria's fuel prices have climbed to record highs as tensions in the Middle East push up global oil prices, piling fresh cost-of-living pressure on President Bola Tinubu's government ahead of ‌elections in less than six months.

The surge has occurred even as the Dangote refinery, Africa's largest, operates at full tilt of 700,000 barrels per day, highlighting the limits of domestic refining in shielding consumers from international oil market shocks. Petrol prices have risen to about 1,400 naira ($1.05) a litre in Lagos ‌and Abuja this month from roughly 1,200 naira a month earlier, Reuters checks showed, while some stations in northern Nigeria charged as much ‌as 1,500 naira. Diesel was selling higher, at more than 2,000 naira a litre.

"Fuel costs are eating into our earnings. After buying fuel, there is very little left for our families," said Abuja-based truck driver Caleb Ojobo. The price increase followed Dangote refinery's decision to raise its wholesale loading-bay, or gantry, price to 1,350 naira per litre, reflecting higher ⁠crude ​costs and the continued exposure of fuel ⁠prices to global market swings. OPEC member Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer.

Ahead of the 2027 general election, to be held on January 16, opposition politicians have made ⁠fuel prices a central test of the government's economic record. The latest rise has revived the debate over Tinubu's removal of the petrol subsidy, a reform praised by ​investors but blamed by critics for worsening a cost-of-living crisis that has eroded household purchasing power. The president has said there ⁠is no going back to subsidies.

"Fuel pricing tends to function as a proxy for the broader cost-of-living debate, and sustained increases raise the political premium on demonstrating that reform is delivering offsetting ⁠benefits," ​said Jordan Lawrence, CEO of Damisa Technologies, a fintech firm. The high fuel prices come as billionaire Aliko Dangote has started selling shares to the general public to raise funds for the expansion of his refinery.

While the initial public offering has generated excitement as thousands seek ⁠a stake in the refinery, Nigerians are paying more at the pump. "These new costs continue to inflict and deepen poverty among the populace," Nigeria ⁠Labour Congress President Joe Ajaero said, ⁠calling for additional wage support and more naira-denominated crude to the refinery to help curb further price rises.

Analysts say fuel prices will put pressure on inflation, which ticked lower to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in ‌July. Food inflation also ‌eased slightly, but remained at a higher 19.57%. ($1 = 1,328.9900 naira)