FACTBOX-Latvia's pro-Ukraine prime minister leads in poll ahead of Saturday election

Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' centrist United List is expected to win ​the largest share of seats in Saturday's parliamentary election but is unlikely to ​secure an outright majority and will need to ‌cobble together ​a coalition.

Security concerns and cost of living issues have dominated the election agenda in Latvia, a NATO and European Union member state which borders Russia and is home to a significant Russian-speaking minority. The latest SKDS/LSM opinion poll indicates ‌that seven of the 14 parties contesting the election have a chance of winning more than 5% of votes cast and thus enter the 100-seat parliament.

Kulbergs presides over a broad coalition with New Unity, National Alliance and the Greens and Farmers' Union, formed after Evika Silina's government collapsed over its handling of Ukrainian military drones entering Latvia's ‌airspace, a consequence of the war between Russia and Ukraine. But in a sign of public disenchantment with politics, one third of those polled said they ‌were either undecided or did not intend to vote, making the final outcome uncertain.

A high proportion of non-voters and of ballots cast for parties that fail to clear the 5% threshold means the parties that do enter parliament will ultimately receive a larger share of seats than the poll figures imply. The following parties are seen as having the best chance of winning seats in the ⁠October 3 ​election, according to a September 4 to ⁠16 poll by SKDS/LSM:

UNITED LIST (14.4%) The centrist grouping of smaller parties was an also-ran in the 2022 election, and a junior coalition partner in 2022-2023. Its popularity soared in polls after backbencher Kulbergs ⁠was appointed prime minister in May this year.

A former racing driver with a hawkish stance towards Russia and a strong supporter of Ukraine, Kulbergs has a good chance of staying ​in power, polls show. SOVEREIGN POWER & ALLIANCE OF YOUNG LATVIANS (9.4%)

This centre-left group was established in 2022 by politicians who were expelled from another party for ⁠refusing to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It seeks to attract the ethnic Russian minority vote. LATVIA FIRST (9.2%)

The founder and leader of the centre-right Latvia First, veteran populist tycoon Ainars Slesers, has had business ties with ⁠Russian ​oligarchs. He is courting Russian-speaking voters by recruiting ethnic Russian politicians to his party and promising a more conciliatory approach toward the largest minority. PROGRESSIVES (6.2%)

This left-leaning party is backed largely by young, socially progressive voters, founded in 2017. It was part of the government coalition until May after winning seats in 2022. NATIONAL ALLIANCE (5.6%)

A ⁠nationalist party founded in 2010, it campaigns on a promise to protect family and traditional values. It was part of the ruling coalitions from 2019 to ⁠2023 and joined Kulbergs' coalition this year. It ⁠promotes a hardline approach towards Russia and Latvia's Russian minority. GREENS AND FARMERS' UNION (4.8%)

A coalition of conservative groups, it has been part of the current governing coalition since 2023. NEW UNITY (4.3%)

The centre-right party won the election in 2022 and held ‌the prime minister's post until ‌May 2026, when Silina's government collapsed. It is at risk of winning no seats. (Editing ​by Terje Solsvik and Gareth Jones)