Mexico's headline inflation continues acceleration in September

Mexico's annual inflation rate accelerated for ​a second consecutive month in ‌September, official data ​showed on Thursday, but still landed slightly below expectations. Consumer prices in Latin America's second-largest economy rose 3.45% in the year through September, ‌according to the national statistics agency, accelerating from a 3.26% increase in August and landing slightly below economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll that expected a 3.47% increase.

In September alone, consumer prices rose ‌0.42%, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures, in line with economists' expectations and accelerating from a 0.20% ‌increase the prior month. The rise in the headline rate was mainly driven by higher fruit and vegetable prices, particularly tomatoes and onions, INE said in the report.

"By the end of 2026, we anticipate an upward trend in headline annual inflation ⁠towards ​3.9%, driven by a ⁠gradual rise in agricultural inflation," analysts at Banamex said in a note. They expect core inflation to follow a slight ⁠downward trend, towards 3.7% by the end of the year.

The closely watched core index, which strips out ​some volatile food and energy prices, eased for the eighth consecutive month in annual terms, falling ⁠to its lowest level since March 2025 at 3.75%. During the month, the core rate rose 0.20%, accelerating from a 0.16% ⁠monthly ​increase registered in August.

Both headline and core annual inflation rates remained within Mexico's central bank target range of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. Mexico's central bank is expected ⁠to publish the minutes of its most recent meeting later on Thursday. At that meeting, Banxico's board unanimously ⁠held the benchmark ⁠rate at 6.50% and emphasized that Mexican monetary policy does not automatically need to follow increases forecast by the US Federal Reserve.