ANALYSIS-Brazil's incoming right-wing Congress takes aim at judge who jailed Bolsonaro

Brazil's next Congress is spoiling for a fight with ​the Supreme Court, including plans for an unprecedented impeachment of one of its justices that ‌could dramatically ​expand the reach of a right-wing agenda, more than a dozen experts and officials at both the Senate and court told Reuters.

Driving the effort are allies of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro who dominated legislative elections this month and plan to take aim at Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court justice responsible for the ex-president's arrest and conviction on coup-plotting charges. That would represent a major escalation by the legislative branch ‌in a years-long power struggle with an empowered Brazilian judiciary, reasserting the influence of Congress and potentially pushing the court to the right for years to come.

If Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the former president's son, beats leftist incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in an October 25 runoff as polls now suggest, a defanged judiciary would also reduce one of the main checks on his power. BLOCKING RIGHT-WING POLICIES

Brazil's Supreme Court was the main obstacle to his father's agenda during his 2019-2023 presidency, blocking efforts to weaken environmental protections, ease pandemic restrictions and facilitate gun purchases, for ‌example. The top court continues to hold back some of the most strident right-wing legislation, effectively defining policy on matters from Indigenous rights to regulating the internet.

This month's election could prove pivotal, as the next president could name at least 4 of the court's 11 ‌justices, including an already vacant seat and replacements for 3 justices who will reach the mandatory retirement age of 75 before the president's term ends. After former President Bolsonaro named two justices to the court, a victory by his son could spell a majority of the court appointed by the Bolsonaro family by the time he would leave office in 2031.

Impeaching Moraes, 57, would hasten that majority's arrival. "Should Flavio win, the next administration and the Senate can reshape the majority of the 11-member bench, which means defining, literally, the balance of power in Brazilian democracy for a generation," said Bruna Santos, director of the Brazil Program at the Inter-American Dialogue.

SCORNED BY TRUMP, MUSK Ex-President Bolsonaro has been ⁠in jail since ​November for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Moraes, who ⁠oversaw the case, became one of Brazil's most polarizing figures, drawing even the ire of US President Donald Trump, who described the case as a "witch hunt" and briefly sanctioned the judge in 2025.

Moraes also drew criticism when he ordered X suspended in Brazil in 2024, after the platform defied court orders. Its owner Elon Musk accused ⁠him of censorship and authoritarianism. Bolsonaro supporters have rallied to remove the judge after a federal police report revealed communications between Moraes and a jailed banker accused of the country's biggest-ever banking fraud. Bolsonaro, who himself is being investigated for ties to the same banker, has also called for Moraes' removal.

"Defending the Judiciary ​means confronting this problem — opening an impeachment process and giving him the right to a defense, concluding it and turning this page," Senator-elect Domingos Savio, from Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL), told Reuters. Lula has publicly supported unsealing the investigation, calling for transparency, disclosure, and an impartial investigation ⁠into all allegations of corruption.

Neither Moraes nor the Supreme Court responded to questions from Reuters. He and the wider court have defended their actions as necessary to uphold Brazilian law and protect democratic institutions. He has referred to the probes as politically and electorally motivated as revenge for the conviction of former President Bolsonaro, and requested his own investigation ⁠into another ​justice who released the reports. LEGISLATIVE FIREPOWER

Senator Bolsonaro's running mate, lawmaker Alfredo Gaspar, told Reuters there is "a need to review what is happening today in the relationship between the Supreme Court and the other branches of government, and that involves examining whether justices have committed impeachable offenses." Brazil's constitution allows the Senate to try Supreme Court justices for infractions that violate the constitution or risk public security. Votes from two-thirds of the 81-member Senate — 54 senators — are needed to convict and remove a justice.

Senator Bolsonaro's allies may already be close when the next Senate ⁠takes office in February. His party won a record 28 seats, and the senator has already secured backing from five other parties that together hold another 22 seats. That would bring the conservative coalition to 50 senators. The remaining four votes could come from the ⁠15 senators with non-aligned parties.

Since 2023, there have been 48 unsuccessful requests to impeach ⁠Moraes within the Senate, which never made it to trial because the Senate president must choose to advance a complaint against a justice. That could change, as Senator Bolsonaro's campaign manager Rogerio Marinho is likely to become the next Senate president.

Marinho has in recent days told several Supreme Court justices that Brazil's upper house will not seek opportunities for revenge, he said to journalists, though adding that the current Senate ‌is "failing to act" to hold justices accountable. "If ‌impeachable offenses are committed, they must be investigated. No one is above the law," Marinho said.