INSTANT VIEW-China's economic growth accelerates to 4.5% in third quarter

China's economic growth rebounded to 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, beating expectations ​and easing the pressure on policymakers for delivering more aggressive stimulus ​measures to meet the annual target.

The third-quarter ‌gross domestic ​product growth rate, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, beat the forecast for 4.4% growth in a Reuters poll, and improved from the more-than-three-year low of 4.3% in the April-to-June period. KEY ‌POINTS

COMMENTARY HO WOEI CHEN, ECONOMIST, UOB, SINGAPORE:

"External demand is still keeping the economy afloat, and I think that is also why ‌the government is not really very aggressive in the stimulus. "We see some targeted support here and there, but broad-based easing is not ‌very likely at this point because I think growth is still on target at the bottom of the forecast range.

"Our forecast now is 4.5%." ANDY JI, ASIAN FX & RATES ANALYST, ITC MARKETS, SHANGHAI:

"China’s Q3 print beat on both the YoY and QoQ measures. The result puts China's full-year 4.5%-5% growth target within reach, though still requiring a strong Q4. ⁠High-tech manufacturing, ​chip output, NEVs, and export delivery ⁠values reflect a competitive industrial upgrading that is real and accelerating. "However, the growth composition remains deeply unbalanced... Growth is export- and state-led; domestic demand is not yet self-sustaining, and the ⁠property sector shows no floor.

"The GDP beat and retail sales surprise reduce the urgency for immediate broad-based easing. The PBOC has kept its policy rate steady since a ​cut in May 2025. While monetary policy is effectively on hold, the active policy debate is fiscal." BACKGROUND