Eli Lilly lifts revenue outlook as weight-loss shot demand soars, shares jump

‌Eli ​Lilly raised its full-year revenue forecast by $5 billion and beat third-quarter profit estimates on Thursday on booming demand for its injectable weight-loss drugs, partly among older Americans who pay just $50 monthly for them. The Indianapolis-based drugmaker now forecasts 2026 revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion, underscoring its expanding lead in the multibillion-dollar GLP-1 market over Danish rival Novo Nordisk that ‌has propelled Lilly to a $1.2 trillion market valuation.

Lilly shares were up more than 6% in afternoon trading at $1,369.79 after briefly hitting a record high of $1,408. Launched in July, the pilot weight-loss program with the US government's Medicare program for people aged 65 and older or who have disabilities has brought Lilly more than 500,000 new customers, the company said. The pilot also includes Novo's weight-loss drugs.

The bulk of Lilly's non-reimbursed sales have historically come from its $449-a-month cash-pay ‌platform, raising stakes over how the government plan discounts would impact long-term margins. International sales of Mounjaro generated $5.7 billion for the quarter, rising 93% over the year-ago quarter, which Lilly cited as another factor in the sales ‌forecast increase. Lilly missed sales estimates for its weight-loss pill Foundayo by about $30 million.

The company trimmed its 2026 adjusted profit outlook to $35.00 to $36.00 per share, from $35.50 to $36.50 previously, due to large charges taken in the quarter primarily related to the acquisitions of AtaiBeckley and Curevo, Lilly said. Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, which owns over 16,000 Eli Lilly shares, shrugged off the 50-cent profit forecast reduction. "They're spending money so that they can make money down the road," he said.

BOOMING MOUNJARO, ZEPBOUND DEMAND Lilly posted third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, ⁠topping analyst expectations of $22.61 ​billion, while adjusted profit of $7.48 per share sailed past ⁠estimates of $6.26, according to LSEG data.

Revenue included about $900 million of benefits, primarily $410 million of milestone payments tied to diabetes drug Jardiance, which Lilly said are the last it expects to receive, and favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates. Third-quarter sales of diabetes drug Mounjaro ⁠reached $10.72 billion, topping Wall Street expectations of $10.16 billion, while its related obesity injection Zepbound brought in $5.35 billion versus estimates of $5.09 billion.

Even as Lilly's obesity injections maintain commercial momentum, Wall Street's attention is shifting toward retatrutide, the company's next-generation weight-loss candidate slated for regulatory submission ​next year. Retatrutide has been shown to drive average weight loss of 24% in midstage trials, topping results of drugs already on the market.

FOUNDAYO LAGS Lilly's newer obesity pill Foundayo brought in $184 million, falling short ⁠of estimates of $216.86 million.

Investors are closely tracking the Foundayo rollout as a key test of whether Lilly can blunt Novo's first-mover edge with its oral Wegovy. Lilly Chief Financial Officer Lucas Montarce said the shortfall in Foundayo's third-quarter sales reflects stocking in the launch quarter, not weak demand. ⁠In ​an interview, Montarce explained that some $30 million of second-quarter revenue was inventory sold into the channel, which analysts can't see. Excluding it, he said, US demand more than tripled to over $120 million from about $37 million.

The CFO pointed to Foundayo's share of new-to-brand prescriptions, which he said doubled from the last quarter to about 40%, a strong indication of how total prescriptions will follow. While initial US Foundayo prescriptions have trailed oral Wegovy, some analysts expect the ⁠Lilly pill to emerge as a significant growth driver as it launches in more international markets.

"Foundayo continues to lag," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman, "though the strength of Lilly's broader commercial business makes this less of ⁠a concern in our view." Foundayo was launched in the ⁠US and Britain earlier this year and could begin selling in other European countries by year-end.

Lilly's realized prices fell 15% in the third quarter, offsetting part of a 53% rise in volume. US prices fell 7%, a decline Lilly attributed primarily to Zepbound and said was partly offset by adjustments to rebate and discount estimates. Outside ‌the US, prices fell 29%, driven mainly ‌by Mounjaro's inclusion on China's national reimbursement drug list.