FACTBOX-Ten key US House races that could decide the 2026 midterms

Republicans in the US House of Representatives are defending a narrow majority in November's midterm elections. History suggests Democrats will gain seats, and they would need to net four to win control of the chamber. But Republicans have kick-started a national redistricting battle that could make Democrats' path to ​a majority slightly more difficult. Here are some races to watch:

COLORADO'S 8TH DISTRICT Former Colorado state Representative Manny Rutinel is among a broad group of Democratic challengers who have outraised Republican incumbents. Rutinel is challenging freshman Republican US Representative ​Gabe Evans in a district that's nearly 40% Hispanic. President Donald Trump won it by 1.8 percentage points in 2024.

Evans has sought to tie Rutinel, ‌a progressive who ​defeated a moderate opponent in his primary, to the Democratic Socialists of America as he's framed the race as "common sense" Republicans versus "crazy" Democrats. In a recent social media post, he shared an image of Rutinel protesting meat as a college student. Colorado's Democratic congressional delegation and former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg joined Rutinel at campaign events last week.

Democratic outside groups have poured $14 million in the race to Republicans' $13 million. FLORIDA'S 25TH DISTRICT

Florida Republicans may have overreached when they redrew their state's congressional map to net their party four additional seats. State lawmakers targeted Democratic US Representatives Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who ran for reelection in a safe Democratic district. Trump won Soto's new district by nearly 18 points, which may be ‌too much for Soto to overcome. But Democrats remain competitive in the redrawn districts that Trump carried by 9 to 10 points, including the redrawn Wasserman Schultz district, in which Democratic US Representative Jared Moskowitz is running against former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer, a Republican.

The two appeared at a candidate forum last week, but Singer has repeatedly called out Moskowitz for refusing to agree to a televised debate. Moskowitz has outraised Singer by about $2.5 million. Republican and Democratic groups have each poured in $20 million in outside spending.

IOWA'S 1ST DISTRICT US Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa faces a familiar opponent in former state Representative Christina Bohannan, a Democrat who ran unsuccessfully against Miller-Meeks in 2022 and 2024. This time, however, could be different.

Trump is deeply unpopular, and the combination of tariffs and the war in Iran has elevated cost-of-living concerns. Trump's policies have driven up the prices of diesel and fertilizer as voters have said affordability is their top issue this cycle. The national average prices of gas and diesel were about $4.23 and $6.33, respectively, according ‌to AAA. Miller-Meeks held events last week with multiple officials from the US Department of Agriculture. About a third of the district is rural. Bohannan has highlighted the role of Washington officials in Miller-Meeks' campaign, as she's described the contest as "Iowa vs. Washington."

Democrats have outspent Republicans in this district, $11 million to $7 million. MAINE'S 2ND DISTRICT

The retirement of centrist Democratic US Representative Jared Golden in a district Trump won by 9 points in 2024 opened a key flip opportunity for Republicans. Former ‌Maine Governor Paul LePage is running against progressive state auditor Matt Dunlap. Dunlap has asked voters why they believe LePage would show up for them in Washington when he hasn't shown up to answer their questions, arguing that while he's held town halls in every county in the district, LePage has held none. At a recent debate, LePage made the affordability argument for his campaign, telling voters to back his opponent if they want to pay more but support him if they want to pay less.

Republican and Democratic outside groups have each spent about $10 million here. Election forecasters rate the race "lean Republican." MONTANA'S 1ST DISTRICT

Trump won Republican US Representative Ryan Zinke's Montana district by nearly 12 points in 2024. Neither Trump nor Zinke is on the ballot this year. Combat veteran Aaron Flint, a Republican, is running against Democrat Sam Forstag, a union leader and smokejumper — a firefighter who parachutes into remote areas.

Vice President JD Vance rallied for Flint and Republican Senate nominee Kurt Alme last week, and Trump gave Flint his "complete and total endorsement" in a two-minute social media video. A recent Forstag ad calls Flint "AI Aaron," casting him as a pro-data center candidate and beneficiary of Big Tech money from artificial intelligence companies. Forstag has outraised Flint by ⁠nearly $1.5 million. Republicans have spent about $11 ​million to hold the seat, while Democrats have poured in $7 million to flip it.

Two October polls showed Forstag with a narrow ⁠lead. NORTH CAROLINA'S 1ST DISTRICT

Republicans redrew Democratic US Representative Don Davis' North Carolina district, shifting it from a district Trump won by 3 points to one he carried by double digits. Davis is seeking reelection anyway. His opponent, retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, is a former senior Pentagon official in the Trump administration who was suspended by the prediction market platform Kalshi and fined after betting $1,000 on herself to win in November, which she called "a dumb mistake."

Buckhout has tried to paint Davis as a radical Democrat, warning voters that "radical leftists like Elizabeth Warren want him in Congress." Davis has tried to focus on ⁠the issues, writing online last week that in his conversations with early voters, their top concerns were high costs and rural hospitals shuttering. Democrats have outspent Republicans as they try to hold this seat, $22 million to $17 million.

NEW YORK'S 17TH DISTRICT US Representative Mike Lawler of New York is one of just three Republicans who represent a congressional district Kamala Harris won in 2024. The others are an open seat in Nebraska and a Pennsylvania district US Representative Brian Fitzpatrick is favored to win. That makes Lawler the most vulnerable House Republican up for reelection.

His opponent, Cait Conley, ​is a combat veteran and national security expert. US House Speaker Mike Johnson joined Lawler at a press conference last week to highlight Conley's out-of-state ties. Conley owns a home in Virginia, where she pays property taxes. Conley has tried to tie Lawler to unpopular figures, painting him as an ally of Trump, trillionaire Elon Musk and data centers.

Republicans have spent about $13 million to hold the seat, while Democrats have invested $7 million to flip ⁠it. OHIO'S 7TH DISTRICT

Republican US Representative Max Miller of Ohio was reelected by 15 points in 2024, though an independent candidate got 13% of the vote. Trump won the district by a smaller margin than Miller, and domestic and child abuse allegations made by his ex-wife and a former girlfriend have made the congressman uniquely vulnerable. Miller has denied the allegations, but his ex-wife's father, US Senator Bernie Moreno, a fellow Ohio Republican, has called on him to resign and end his reelection campaign.

The once-safe seat is now seen as a toss-up. Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, is an ironworker and a Brook Park city councilor. In a campaign ad, ⁠Miller ​said all the allegations against him have proven to be false. In a social media post that included the ad, Miller wrote that "father" is his favorite title and "congressman" is his second.

Poindexter called Miller unfit for office and said Miller is still in the race because he's been able to spend more money on his campaigns than Poindexter has made in his life. Poindexter has outraised Miller by about $400,000 this cycle, and Democrats have spent about $12 million in the race to Republicans' $6 million.

TEXAS' 15TH DISTRICT When Texas Republicans kicked off a national gerrymandering war against Democrats in the hopes of defying historical trends to hold their fragile majority in Washington, they sought to pick up five seats. Yet three of those seats are in play — all in South Texas.

Democratic US Representatives Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar are now running in districts President Donald Trump won by 10 percentage points in 2024. The third district, which was redrawn from a safe Democratic seat into one Trump also carried by 10 ⁠points, is an open race between Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia. Republican US Representative Monica De La Cruz is also vulnerable in her South Texas district. Her opponent, Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, is running to unseat her in a district Trump won by 18 points in 2024.

Despite being the incumbent, De La Cruz has insisted she's an underdog running against "a rich celebrity from a corrupt political dynasty." She has attacked Pulido's ties to ⁠his band's ex-accordionist, a registered sex offender who was convicted for indecent sexual contact with a child. Pulido has distanced himself from his former ⁠bandmate and said he was unaware the man was a sex offender. Pulido has seized on De La Cruz's comment that this race "isn't about who you want performing at your niece's quinceanera," going on to perform at Latina girls' birthday parties for much of his campaign. Pulido released an ad last week featuring an endorsement from former Democratic President Bill Clinton.

Democrats have poured more than $12 million into flipping the seat. Republicans have spent $11 million. A poll last month showed Pulido leading by 7 points.

WASHINGTON'S 3RD DISTRICT Centrist Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington authored a resolution condemning a fellow Democrat and helped Republicans advance their agenda by bucking her party on traditionally party-line procedural votes. That may help her in a district Trump narrowly ‌won in 2024.

Gluesenkamp Perez finished second in Washington's top-two primary, trailing state Senate Republican Leader ‌John Braun. Braun has said Gluesenkamp Perez hasn't delivered for her constituents on any big issues. Gluesenkamp Perez has countered that Braun is a multimillionaire who's relying on Republicans' outside spending to buy his election.

Republican groups have outspent Democrats in the district, $14 ​million to $8 million.