New Zealand vote leaves National, Labour nearly deadlocked

New Zealanders were unlikely to ​have much clarity on Sunday over who ​will govern the country for the next ‌three years, ​after overnight results showed the ruling centre-right National Party and main opposition Labour Party were nearly deadlocked in the popular vote.

Electoral Commission preliminary results showed that ‌both parties were polling at just under 30% of the popular vote, with only a few hundred votes separating them. An Electoral Commission projection showed the current three-party ruling coalition, led by National, would secure a two-seat majority after an election dominated ‌by a struggling economy and voter disillusionment with the two largest parties.

The final vote count, however, which will ‌include special votes that have historically favoured left-leaning parties, will not be released until November 27. Until then the incumbent coalition, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, will continue to operate as a caretaker government.

If the National-led coalition loses its majority at the official count, either it or ⁠a left-leaning ​coalition would require the support ⁠of the centrist Opportunity Party, which looks likely to enter parliament for the first time. Luxon has repeatedly ruled out working with Opportunity, but Mona ⁠Krewel, a senior political science lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, said it was possible the two parties could still work ​together.

"I actually would take them for very centrist, very pragmatic, and so I do think they could ⁠make it work with National," she said. The country switched to a mixed member proportional system in 1996, meaning people vote for both a party ⁠and ​a local constituency candidate. There are 71 constituency, or "electorate", seats and at least 49 party list seats.

However, National and a minor party, Te Pati Maori, each won a disproportionately high share of constituency seats relative to their ⁠popular-vote support due to tactical voting, reshaping the balance of seats in parliament and sparking debate about the electoral system. "It ⁠certainly looks as if ⁠we're on track for the least proportional parliament that we've had, as a result of the vagaries of the rules around how electorate seats interact with the parliament as a ‌whole," political ‌commentator Ben Thomas said.