Urban transport post-COVID 19: Planned lockdowns may be normal to counter air pollution

In the pre-COVID 10 period, the transport planning was primarily based on the concept of providing carriageways to decongest the traffic but the post-pandemic world will be requiring comprehensive transport planning. The innovations in surface transport would require to address concerns of the pandemic and make them resilient to potential pandemics and climate disasters.

Though cruel in several aspects, the world wide lockdown due to COVID 19 pandemic is igniting minds for innovative solutions on a range of issues related to urban planning and public transport. These innovations aimed at mitigating infection of highly contagious COVID 19 are setting a narrative for comprehensive public transport policies in the post-pandemic world. Surface transport or land transport, used by the maximum people throughout the world, is likely to be substantially affected.

Which city will be effected how much? This is a question to be answered by the executive bodies. However, given the intensity and territorial coverage of COVID 19, the pandemic seems to have become the biggest change-maker ever in the transport sector. The oil shocks of the 1970s are credited to have oriented transport innovations towards renewable energy and micro-mobility services. The shock of COVID 19 pandemic is apparently the strongest ever for surface transport (hereafter, transport).

Out of the US$ 2 trillion economic relief package, US President Donald Trump has proposed $ 489 billion investments in surface transportation for over the next five years including $105 billion in public transit and $55 for passenger rail. "Investing in our public transportation infrastructure will lead to benefits that repay the investment multiple times over, as the nation emerges from the coronavirus pandemic and builds for the future," said American Public Transport Association (APTA). Japan, China, India, and other countries are also planning for stimulus packages to revive their economies.

China is reportedly recovering from economic loss but the recovery in the transport sector is very slow. "One such daily activity tracker by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) combines data on coal consumption, labor migration, freight logistics, and urban transport use. The tracker suggests that February activity averaged 53 percent below normal, and data to 26 March show March activity averaging about 21 percent below normal. Labor migration, coal consumption, freight logistics indicators have returned to normal but urban transportation is still far below normal," said a recent report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). This reveals the challenges before public transport and also the scope for innovations. "We have an opportunity on a global level to undo the wrongs of past transportation policies and practices and course-correct as we face other looming issues that will further impact transportation systems down the line," said Timothy Papandreou in an analysis in Forbes.

However, there could not be 'one-size-fits-all' kind of policy solutions for urban transport planning but the COVID 19 seems to be pushing the post-pandemic world towards a new public transport system which will be focused on decongestion, hygienic, public health, social distancing and clean and affordable energy (SDG 7). Though slowly, the climate cautious world was moving in this direction. The COVID 19 pandemic has stalled the world and compelled for a complete transformation of the transport sector. Here are a few lessons we can learn from this global lockdown for the transport sector of the post-pandemic world.

Redefining sustainably in Urban Mobility

In recent years, the governments had been focusing on huge transport infrastructure to ensure the commutation of maximum possible people on time. Besides the roads, rail infrastructure is also aligned with this narrative. However, this model has failed the test of the COVID 19 pandemic. Now, it would also be difficult for economies to restore the confidence of private investors in giant public-private partnership (PPP) projects.

The previous concept of sustainable urban mobility that was centered on time management and physical safety of the travelers needs a complete overhaul. Now, the concerns of hygiene, public health, and social distancing will also need to be addressed.

Sandra Caballero of the World Economic Forum has floated three ideas – complete integration of public and private transport, integrated movement of goods and people, and agile mobility. For her 'private partner' is not limited to 'private companies' but also vehicles owned by individuals. There is no denying that people generously donate their vehicles for community activities during disastrous, epidemics and pandemics but complete abolition of individual authority on their vehicles in non-crisis days seems a remote possibility. India has seen several such examples where people generously donate and pool their personal vehicles for community festivals, marriages, and disasters but the complete abolition of individual rights on personal vehicles in normal days is unheard of. However, there will always be scope for innovative models on integrated public-private transport in the post-pandemic world.

Besides, regional transport planning seems to get momentum for decongesting big cities and developing self-dependent sustainable cities that will not be dependent on big cities/ metros for their requirements. These new cities are likely to have a new kind of transport and traffic management system based on the learning of the COVID 19 pandemic. Furthermore, the decongested big cities will also have enough space to overhaul their transport system on new parameters. The development of new cities will require new approaches and more data on their population growth estimates, technological innovations, working places, sanitation arrangements, hygiene, and mitigation strategies for potential health epidemics/ pandemics and climate disasters. The transport system throughout the world was already in transition due to the emergence of Mobile App based services such as Ola and Uber and concerns of climate change but now the transformation has become an urgency.

Teleportation versus Transportation

Teleportation, virtual meetings through internet-based technological innovations, has emerged as a major tool for decongesting and minimizing strain on transport infrastructure in urban planning. The COVID 19 pandemic has broken all the previous records of teleportation.

According to estimates, the work from home, online meetings and webinars have reached a 90 percent shift in the US. According to an estimate, the videoconferencing company Zoom's turnover has reached $42 billion which is more than any US airline. The role of teleportation will continue to play an important role in transport management and decongesting traffic on roads for air pollution and global warming.

Micro-mobility Services

In the absence of people, travelers, and tourists on roads, the micro-mobility companies have been hit hard. China's Bird has laid off 30 percent workforce while Lime has cut its valuation by over 600 percent. The e-bikes and e-scooters of these companies are lying idle.

However, the transport experts see huge possibilities for revival for the micro-mobility sector. Papandreou has suggested innovators design, experiment and use cheap and quick tactical materials to close the gaps for the bicycle, transit, and carpool lane networks, and try out the shared mobility pick up and drop off zones, delivery and loading zones.

Institute of Transportation and Development Policy has suggested a model for micro-mobility, small, lightweight devices operating at speeds typically below 25km/h and ideal for trips under 10 km. This includes cycle, e-rickshaws, stake boards, cargo bikes, etc. for last-mile connectivity with a view to ensuring access to the public transport system without cars. "This matters not just for COVID-19, but for a city's overall resilience. Whether it's a global pandemic, severe storms, poor air quality, or other effects of climate change, cities will continue to be faced with and have to persevere through disruptions. To keep cities moving, we need all options to be available, i.e. buses, metro, shared taxis, walking, and, of course, growing micro-mobility should be a part of every city's resilience plan," said the report.

Caring Transport Services

A number of initiatives are being taken throughout the world to save the passengers from getting infected with COVID 19 by maintaining social distancing, contactless (less contact) services, and disinfecting public transport.

DiDi, a ride-hailing app in China has started installing protective sheets in vehicles and providing masks to drivers. In Australia, transport workers expressed concerns about handling cash from customers. The USA's APTA, UTIP, and European Union have also issued a number of guidelines including wearing gloves, masks, using disinfectants, separating chambers of the crew and washing the buses with disinfectants. Authorities in Rwanda have installed portable handwashing facilities at the bus stations.

Interestingly, Beijing is planning to launch a 'subway by appointment' scheme where people will be provided safe exit through two of the busiest subways in the city. China has introduced several initiatives on the three principles - avoid, shift and improve. However, despite several contactless facilities such as online order, delivery, payment services, and ticketing services, social distancing is still a major issue in the entire transport sector throughout the world.

Will planned global lockdown be a tool to counter air pollution?

Presently, the whole world is going through a forced lockdown and air quality in all major urban centers worldwide has improved substantially. Will this be the beginning of planned lockdown to counter air pollution?

Earlier, there have been experiments on city-specific 'shutdowns' in Beijing for 70th-anniversary celebrations of World War 2 in August 2015, Herbin in October 2013, Sydney was locked during bushfires of 2019-20 and Delhi had to implement odd-even scheme third time in November 2019 due to sever + air pollution due to stubble burning by farmers. According to an analysis published by WEF in 2019, China's pollution was so bad that it was blocking sunlight from solar panels but now it's clean. Furthermore, European Environmental Agency has reported that several cities in European counties were also facing air pollution.

Humans and biodiversity throughout the globe are suffering from carbon emissions and disasters caused by extreme weather conditions due to greenhouse gas emissions. The pollution had reached dangerous levels in all the forms of nature from sea to mountains.

Though a pandemic compelled global lockdown is highly devastating, a globally planned lockdown on regular intervals may help the nature in self-cleansing. The cities and countries throughout the world are witnessing unprecedented and historic results of clean air and clean water bodies with one or two weeks of lockdown. It would be pertinent to see if all the member states of the United Nations agree on planned and coordinated periodic lockdowns to reduce emissions. However, the modalities of such a global lockdown need to unanimously agree upon among the members and every minor detail will be required to be finalized from the number of days to frequency (quarterly, half-yearly or annual), and the economic activities need to be closed during such planned global lockdowns. A planned global lockdown will always be less devastating to economies and their people.

In addition to that experiences of the pandemic, lockdowns could also be used at the local level by cities, nations, and regions as a measure to provide time for self-healing mechanisms to nature. The experience of this forced lockdown seems to manifest a huge potential for a sustainable model of achieving the targets of Climate Action adopted as a 13th Global Goal (SDG 13) by the United Nations for the year 2030 (SDG 2030). Such a planned global lockdown will continue to remind humans of their limitations on this planet and instill the message of - the wild must be kept wild. Besides, it would also catalyze the activities aimed at the restoration of forests, preventing deforestation, green technologies, and sustainable living.

Centre of Excellence on Emerging Development Perspectives (COE-EDP) is an initiative of VisionRI and aims to keep track of the transition trajectory of the global development sector and works towards conceptualization, development, and mainstreaming of innovative developmental approaches, frameworks, and practices.