SA Shows Strong Signs of Recovery as 2026 Nears, Says Nomonde Mnukwa

For the first time since 2008, government debt is stabilising instead of rising, with projections showing it will level off at 77.9% of GDP in 2026.

As 2025 draws to a close and South Africa stands on the threshold of a new year, the national mood is shifting toward confident economic optimism. After navigating years of structural challenges, fiscal strain and global uncertainty, the country is now decisively “turning the corner” — accelerating toward a more stable, sustainable and prosperous economic future.

South Africans’ resilience, creativity and problem-solving spirit have been key to this turnaround. The ability to adapt, innovate and persevere — to “make a plan” — has allowed the nation to rise above recent difficulties. Today, the results of this collective endurance are more visible than ever.

In his recent address celebrating South Africa’s successful hosting of the G20 Summit, President Cyril Ramaphosa said:

“We are beginning to see the green shoots of an emerging economic recovery. Unemployment has fallen in recent months. Our public finances are improving, allowing us to steadily reduce our national debt.”

A Turning Point in Public Finances

For the first time since 2008, government debt is stabilising instead of rising, with projections showing it will level off at 77.9% of GDP in 2026. Decades of borrowing more than we earned had stretched state finances, but a new direction is now taking shape.

South Africa is also set to achieve a primary budget surplus this financial year — meaning the state is no longer borrowing simply to cover day-to-day expenses. By 2028/29, the surplus is expected to expand, freeing up valuable resources for healthcare, economic growth interventions and social support.

Jobs Returning, Economy Strengthening

Job creation remains the number one priority for South Africa’s 7th administration. In the third quarter of 2025, more than 248,000 new jobs were created, pushing total employment above 17.1 million — the highest level recorded this year and a significant step toward full economic recovery.

The economy has now posted four consecutive quarters of GDP growth, with output rising by 0.5% in Q3 2025. Importantly, growth was broad-based:

• mining

• agriculture

• retail and trade

• accommodation

All contributed positively, signalling a recovery rooted across multiple sectors rather than driven by a single industry.

Meanwhile, agribusiness confidence has also strengthened, climbing five points to 67 in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index.

Youth Employment and Skills Development Rising

The Youth Employment Service (YES) has placed over 202,558 young people in 12-month work experiences to date, supported by more than 1,900 corporate partners. YES continues to drive digital and technological skills development, reinforcing South Africa’s long-term economic transformation agenda.

Reforms Driving Stability and Momentum

Several major reforms are now delivering measurable results:

• Operation Vulindlela continues to modernise ports, expand energy generation and simplify regulatory processes.

• Eskom’s improved performance has produced an unprecedented 169 consecutive days without load shedding during Q2 of the current financial year.

• Rail reforms are advancing through the establishment of a Transnet Rail Infrastructure Manager, allowing private operators open access to the network.

• Forty-one freight rail routes are set to open to 11 private Train Operating Companies, with projected rail volumes rising from 160 million tons to 250 million tons by 2030.

Joint operations between Transnet, law enforcement and industry have also restored key freight corridors, speeding up logistics and boosting export capacity.

Improving Global Confidence

One of the most encouraging signs is the recent upgrade of South Africa’s outlook by S&P Global Ratings, a clear indicator to global investors that reforms and fiscal discipline are working.

South Africa has also been successfully removed from the FATF grey list, after completing stringent financial reforms within two and a half years. This enhances the country’s global reputation, improves business conditions and strengthens investor trust.

A World-Class G20 Showcase

South Africa’s hosting of the G20 Summit has been a transformative moment. The world saw a safe, organised and dynamic nation with world-class infrastructure and economic potential. The Summit helped reshape global perceptions and boosted investor confidence.

Building a Future That Works for All

South Africa’s strengths now outweigh its challenges, but continued progress depends on sustaining momentum. Government, business, labour and communities must continue working together to deepen reforms, encourage investment and spread economic opportunity to all.

The country has entered a new period of possibility and renewal. If South Africans remain united and focused, the positive indicators emerging today can grow into a strong, fair and thriving economy that benefits every household.