UN Warns South Sudan on Brink as Military Rhetoric Fuels Violence Risk

The Commission warned that South Sudan’s history shows such rhetoric often precedes mass atrocities, particularly when it is issued or tolerated by those in positions of command.

The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has issued an urgent warning over inflammatory rhetoric by senior military figures and reports of force mobilisation in Jonglei State, cautioning that the country is approaching a dangerous tipping point that could lead to mass violence against civilians and the collapse of the peace process.

In a statement released today, the Commission said public statements by commanders exercising effective control over armed forces—when combined with active troop mobilisation—represent a serious escalation at a time when South Sudan’s political transition is already severely weakened.

“Language that calls for the killing of civilians and those hors de combat, including the elderly, with claims that ‘no one should be spared,’ is not only shocking — it is profoundly dangerous,” said Yasmin Sooka, Chair of the Commission.

Rhetoric as a trigger for atrocities

The Commission warned that South Sudan’s history shows such rhetoric often precedes mass atrocities, particularly when it is issued or tolerated by those in positions of command.

“When violent language comes from senior figures, it signals permission to kill and removes any expectation of restraint,” Sooka said. “At a time when civilians are already displaced and traumatised, this places entire communities at grave risk.”

Under international law, military and civilian leaders may be held criminally responsible not only for crimes they commit or order, but also for crimes they incite, or fail to prevent or punish when they knew or should have known those crimes were imminent.

“No senior political or military leader in Juba can claim ignorance of these public incitements,” the Commission said.

Escalation amid political breakdown

The Commission stressed that developments in Jonglei are not isolated, but part of a broader erosion of the peace agreement, weakening command discipline in an already volatile and ethnically fractured environment.

“This is a moment of acute political responsibility,” said Commissioner Barney Afako. “Words uttered by commanders shape troop behaviour on the ground. Reckless rhetoric, combined with force mobilisation and ethnicised messaging, risks triggering retaliatory violence that could rapidly spiral beyond control.”

Afako warned that without immediate action at the highest levels, South Sudan risks sliding into another phase of widespread violence, adding that urgent regional engagement is now essential.

“We are fast running out of time,” he said.

Command responsibility and accountability

Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández underscored that international humanitarian and criminal law attaches responsibility to those exercising effective control, regardless of whether orders are given formally or through public statements, threats or deliberate tolerance of incitement.

“Public statements that frame entire communities as legitimate targets may give rise to individual criminal responsibility,” he said. “Those who incite, order or fail to prevent such acts can be held accountable.”

Call for immediate de-escalation

The Commission called on all parties to immediately cease inflammatory rhetoric and halt force mobilisation, urging a renewed commitment to consensus politics.

It emphasised that President Salva Kiir, as Commander-in-Chief, bears a heightened duty to exercise effective control over forces operating in his name, to prevent attacks on civilians, and to publicly repudiate ethnic mobilisation and calls for exterminatory violence. Similar responsibilities apply to the Chief of Defence Forces, the Minister of Defence, and others with operational oversight.

“Failure to act decisively may engage responsibility at the highest levels of leadership,” the Commission warned.

The Commission also urged regional and international partners to urgently re-engage to preserve the peace agreement, cautioning that inaction could result in an all-out ethnic conflict and another preventable tragedy.

“This crisis is not inevitable,” Sooka said. “Leadership, restraint and accountability can still avert catastrophe. But the window to act is closing fast.”