La Niña Signals Linger as Oceans Warm and Rainfall Patterns Shift

Looking ahead to February–April (FMA) 2026, climate models indicate that cooler Pacific anomalies are likely to weaken, pointing toward a gradual transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.

Global oceans remained warmer than average from October to December 2026, reinforcing climate risks worldwide, even as parts of the equatorial Pacific showed cooling consistent with a weak La Niña, according to the latest seasonal climate outlook.

While sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) cooled slightly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, scientists observed a strong east–west temperature gradient—a key driver of atmospheric behavior. This imbalance sustained La Niña–like rainfall patterns, producing climate impacts more typical of a stronger event despite modest ocean cooling.

The extratropical North Pacific stood out as particularly warm, while above-normal SSTs also persisted across the North Atlantic. In contrast, the South Tropical Atlantic hovered near average. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained in a negative phase, driven by prolonged warming in the eastern Indian Ocean—conditions often linked to altered rainfall across Africa, Asia, and Australia.

ENSO Drifts Toward Neutral—but Impacts Persist

Looking ahead to February–April (FMA) 2026, climate models indicate that cooler Pacific anomalies are likely to weaken, pointing toward a gradual transition to ENSO-neutral conditions. However, continued warmth in the western Pacific is expected to preserve the strong east–west gradient, prolonging La Niña–like atmospheric effects, especially on rainfall.

The IOD is also forecast to weaken, trending toward near-average conditions, while both the North and South Tropical Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal.

Global Temperature Outlook: Widespread Warmth

Multi-model forecasts show a strong global signal for above-normal land temperatures during FMA 2026, with high confidence across much of the Northern Hemisphere north of 30°N. Elevated probabilities for warmth extend across southern and northeastern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, and the Arctic.

In the Southern Hemisphere, northern New Zealand shows a clear warm signal, while South America leans modestly warmer. Australia’s outlook is mixed, and southern Africa south of 10°S shows no clear temperature trend.

Across the tropics, models strongly favor above-normal temperatures over equatorial Africa and the Maritime Continent, reinforcing heat stress risks in already vulnerable regions.

Oceans are also expected to stay warm, particularly across the North Pacific, the Atlantic between 10°–30°N, and the eastern Indian Ocean. Only isolated pockets of cooler-than-normal water are forecast in parts of the Southern Ocean near 60°S.

Rainfall: La Niña’s Fingerprints Remain

Despite the move toward ENSO-neutral conditions, rainfall patterns for FMA 2026 remain largely La Niña-influenced. Suppressed rainfall is forecast across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, stretching from near 170°E toward the western coast of South America.

Beyond the Pacific, below-normal rainfall is more likely over southwestern North America, parts of eastern Asia, the Maritime Continent, and the equatorial Indian Ocean. In contrast, above-normal rainfall probabilities increase over the Philippine Sea, parts of northern North America, southern Central America into northwestern South America, the Caribbean, and northern Asia above 50°N.

Why It Matters

The outlook underscores a critical message: even as La Niña weakens, its climate impacts may linger. Persistent ocean warmth and altered rainfall patterns heighten risks for heatwaves, droughts, floods, and food insecurity, reinforcing the need for early warning systems, climate-resilient planning, and adaptive responses across regions.