Vietnam Builds a Smarter Forecasting System, but Can It Survive Major Government Restructuring?

Vietnam has built a unified forecasting system to improve coordination across growth, debt and economic policy, but major staff turnover threatens its sustainability. The IMF urges regular forecasting, stronger institutional safeguards and a formal channel connecting technical analysis with senior government decisions.

Vietnam has built a stronger system for forecasting economic growth, public debt and the effects of policy changes, but its long-term success will depend on whether the government uses it regularly. An IMF technical assistance report shows that a three-year capacity-building project helped officials replace fragmented analysis with a shared forecasting framework. The initiative also revealed a major vulnerability: more than half of the trained team left following government restructuring in early 2025.

The project ran from May 2023 to April 2026 and was delivered by the International Monetary Fund's Institute for Capacity Development and Capacity Development Office in Thailand, with financing from the Government of Japan. It included nine in-person missions and technical work between missions.

A Common Economic Picture for Government

The project established a multi-agency Core Working Group involving officials from the Ministry of Planning and Investment, Ministry of Finance, State Bank of Vietnam and MOIT. Previously, institutions often prepared economic analysis separately, using different data, methods and assumptions. This made it harder to develop a consistent national economic outlook.

The working group developed customised versions of the IMF's Macroframework Foundations Tool and Public Debt Dynamics Tool. These instruments connect projections for growth, inflation, public finances, debt and other economic indicators.

Progress was rapid. Officials were compiling the required data by October 2023 and producing initial projections by March 2024. Scenario analysis began in June 2024, and by October 2024 the team was presenting complete macroeconomic and debt projections to policymakers.

The group also estimated Vietnam's potential gross domestic product and examined the effects of global trade tensions. Such analysis is important for an export-dependent economy exposed to changing international demand, tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and financing conditions.

Better Forecasts, Smarter Policy Choices

A shared forecasting system can help the government understand how decisions in one policy area affect the wider economy. For example, officials can assess whether growth assumptions are consistent with tax revenue, public spending, borrowing and debt sustainability.

The tools also allow policymakers to compare a baseline forecast with alternative scenarios involving external shocks or policy changes. This can improve preparations for slower global growth, higher borrowing costs or disruptions to trade. The IMF supported the analysis but did not recommend specific policy choices.

The project created a centralised macroeconomic database based on international statistical standards. Officials checked historical data for consistency and established a shared filing system containing models, datasets, manuals and presentations. A user manual in Vietnamese and English was developed to train new staff.

More credible forecasts could also support public investment planning and improve investor confidence. Banks, exporters, infrastructure companies and manufacturers rely on expectations about growth, inflation, interest rates, public spending and debt when making investment and employment decisions.

However, private-sector benefits will remain limited if forecasts are used irregularly or kept largely within government. Clear communication of economic assumptions and policy scenarios would allow companies to make better-informed decisions while reducing uncertainty.

Staff Turnover Tests Institutional Resilience

Government restructuring in early 2025 created the project's greatest challenge. The Ministry of Planning and Investment merged with the Ministry of Finance, and more than half of the working group's members, including most senior officials, left because of job reassignments.

The government preserved the team and appointed new members from the Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Vietnam. Technical assistance during 2025 focused on rebuilding the group, restoring coordination and training new officials. These immediate goals were achieved by early 2026.

The disruption offers an important lesson for governments and international development partners. Capacity-building programmes cannot depend only on trained individuals. They need institutional safeguards, internal training, reliable documentation and succession plans to survive changes in staff or administrative structures.

Development partners should therefore support long-term systems instead of isolated training activities. Future assistance could include refresher courses, improved databases, periodic model reviews and evaluations comparing forecasts with actual outcomes. Partners should also use the government's common forecasting framework rather than creating competing models in separate agencies.

Turning Technical Capacity into Lasting Reform

Vietnam now needs to connect the working group formally to its new economic policy architecture. The government established a Macroeconomic Steering Committee chaired by the prime minister in December 2025 and a Ministry of Finance-led Macroeconomic Coordination Group in March 2026. These bodies could provide a direct channel for technical analysis to reach senior decision-makers.

The report recommends preserving the working group's multi-agency structure, defining its responsibilities within the Ministry of Finance and appointing coordinators to manage its three functional subgroups. New members should preferably have experience in macroeconomic analysis or work in policy departments.

A fixed forecasting calendar is also needed. Officials should meet regularly, update data and policy assumptions, prepare reports and compare previous forecasts with actual economic results. These evaluations would reveal forecasting errors and improve future projections.

Vietnam has built the technical foundation for more evidence-based economic management. The challenge is now institutional rather than technological. Continued demand from senior officials, regular analysis and stronger public communication will determine whether the three-year investment becomes a permanent government capability or gradually loses momentum.