Can Africa’s Great Green Wall Turn Degraded Landscapes Into Jobs and Economic Growth?

Africa’s Great Green Wall is expanding beyond the Sahel into a continent-wide investment platform linking land restoration with jobs, food security and climate resilience. Its success depends on closing a $14 billion financing gap, creating investable projects and ensuring communities share lasting economic benefits.

Africa's Great Green Wall is entering a decisive phase as governments and development partners seek to transform it from a collection of restoration projects into a continent-wide investment platform. The expanded approach aims to rebuild degraded landscapes while creating jobs, strengthening food security and helping vulnerable communities withstand droughts and other climate shocks.

At COP-17 of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification in Ulaanbaatar, the African Development Bank committed to working with partners to mobilise additional financing for the Great Green Wall Initiative. The announcement supports the African Union's Great Green Wall Strategy and Ten-Year Implementation Framework for 2024–2034, which broadens the programme beyond its original concentration on 11 Sahel countries.

Launched in 2007, the initiative set three ambitious targets for 2030: restoring 100 million hectares of degraded land, creating 10 million green jobs and sequestering 250 million tonnes of carbon. Its next chapter will be determined by whether African governments can translate these continental targets into credible projects that investors can finance and communities can sustain.

From an Environmental Project to an Economic Strategy

The Great Green Wall is increasingly being treated as an economic development programme rather than simply an environmental campaign. Land degradation reduces agricultural productivity, weakens water security, damages rural livelihoods and increases communities' exposure to climate shocks. Restoring that land could therefore generate benefits across food systems, employment and local economic development.

The African Union's expanded strategy recognises that these challenges are not confined to the Sahel. Different regions face different pressures, including soil erosion, deforestation, water scarcity and declining ecosystem productivity. A continent-wide platform could give governments a shared financing and coordination mechanism while allowing them to develop responses suited to their own landscapes.

For Africa, the potential gains are considerable. Productive soils and restored watersheds can strengthen farming and livestock systems, while agroforestry, sustainable forestry and restoration services may generate new business opportunities. Rural communities could gain more reliable incomes and improved protection against drought, although outcomes will depend on the quality of projects and their long-term maintenance.

Women and young people are expected to occupy a central place in the expanded programme. This focus could help address unemployment and economic exclusion, but job creation should be measured beyond headline numbers. Governments and development partners will need to assess whether jobs provide adequate wages, useful skills, ownership opportunities and employment that lasts after external financing ends.

A $14 Billion Gap Separates Targets From Delivery

Financing remains the central obstacle. African Union Commission Commissioner Moses Vilakati said Africa had lost 163 million hectares to land degradation since 2015, while the Great Green Wall still faced an estimated $14 billion financing gap if its 2030 objectives were to be achieved.

Closing that gap will be difficult for governments already managing limited fiscal space, debt pressures and competing demands for health, education, infrastructure and social protection. The policy challenge is not simply to secure larger commitments but to ensure that available resources reach viable projects and deliver lasting results.

National governments will need to convert restoration pledges into investment-ready pipelines supported by feasibility studies, implementation plans, environmental and social safeguards and credible monitoring systems. Coordination will also be required across finance, agriculture, environment, water and local-government institutions.

Development partners can support this process through grants, concessional loans, technical assistance and risk-sharing mechanisms. Private investors may participate where restoration projects create measurable revenues, but many benefits, including improved soil health, carbon storage and climate resilience, are public goods that do not produce immediate financial returns.

This means public institutions may need to absorb some early-stage risk. However, governments must ensure that public support does not protect poorly designed investments or transfer disproportionate benefits to private operators.

Zambezi Programme Tests the Continental Model

The proposed Ecosystem Restoration in the Zambezi River Basin programme, known as BREFOLE-ZRB, offers an early test of the new approach. The African Development Bank plans to mobilise $500 million between 2027 and 2031 in cooperation with the Global Environment Facility, Climate Investment Funds, Green Climate Fund and eight participating countries.

The programme is expected to strengthen the resilience of 2.8 million people, restore 300,000 hectares and create 40,000 jobs for women and young people. It will also support the Southern Africa Great Green Wall Accelerator by preparing regional investment plans and developing a pipeline of projects across the Southern African Development Community.

These figures remain planned outcomes rather than completed results. Implementation will depend on financing being secured, national institutions having sufficient capacity and communities remaining involved throughout project design and delivery. Details of the participating countries, final financing structure and formally committed funding should be independently confirmed.

For businesses, the programme could create opportunities in climate-smart agriculture, water management, sustainable forestry, renewable energy, environmental monitoring and nature-based enterprises. Investors, however, will require predictable policies, clearer land rights and workable revenue models.

Community Rights Will Determine Long-Term Success

The Great Green Wall's expansion also introduces risks. Restoring land can raise its economic value, potentially increasing competition over ownership, grazing routes, water access and natural resources. Smallholder farmers, pastoralists and customary land users could be excluded if land rights and benefit-sharing arrangements are not addressed before investment begins.

Local communities must therefore be more than providers of labour. They need meaningful roles in selecting projects, managing resources, monitoring outcomes and deciding how economic benefits are distributed. Transparent grievance mechanisms will also be necessary where land-use conflicts emerge.

Policymakers should avoid judging progress only through money mobilised, trees planted or hectares placed under restoration. More meaningful indicators include vegetation survival, soil and water improvements, income growth, job quality and the durability of restored landscapes after individual projects end.

The Great Green Wall allows Africa to connect climate resilience with economic development. But its credibility will depend on execution. The issues to watch are whether national plans become financeable, whether the $14 billion gap begins to narrow and whether communities receive lasting economic value from the landscapes they help restore.