From Climate Risk to Economic Revival: Burundi's $6.2 Billion Roadmap for a Resilient Future

Burundi needs approximately $6.2 billion in climate-resilient investments by 2050 to protect agriculture, strengthen infrastructure, improve food security, and reduce poverty. The World Bank Group warns that without urgent action, climate change could slow economic growth, while strategic investments and reforms could create jobs, attract private investment, and support sustainable development.

A new report by the World Bank Group, prepared by the World Bank, International Finance Corporation (IFC), and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), warns that climate change could deepen poverty, threaten food security, and slow economic growth in Burundi unless urgent action is taken. The October 2026 Burundi Country Climate and Development Report estimates that the country needs approximately $6.2 billion in priority investments by 2050 to strengthen agriculture, infrastructure, energy, and social protection. It argues that addressing climate risks is essential not only for protecting vulnerable communities but also for creating jobs, attracting investment, and building a stronger economy.

Climate Change Threatens Agriculture and Food Security

Burundi is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, although it contributes less than 0.02 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture accounts for approximately 32 percent of the economy and employs more than 85 percent of the workforce. Around 75 percent of the population lives in rural areas, making millions of households dependent on rainfall, fertile soil, and predictable growing seasons.

Rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, floods, and soil erosion are increasingly threatening agricultural production. Between 2018 and 2023, extreme weather events affected approximately 646,000 people and displaced more than 145,000.

Environmental degradation is making the situation worse. Forest cover has fallen to approximately 6.6 percent, while soil erosion causes economic losses estimated at 4 percent of GDP. Population pressure is also increasing competition for agricultural land.

The report warns that climate change could reduce production of important crops by 2050. Under adverse conditions, vegetables, taro, and potatoes could experience production losses of 18–25 percent, while beans, maize, and sweet potatoes could face declines of 13–16 percent.

These risks are particularly serious because approximately 74.3 percent of Burundi's population was estimated to live below the international poverty threshold of $3 per day in 2025.

Investing in Resilient Farming and Safer Cities

The report identifies climate-resilient agriculture as a major opportunity to protect livelihoods and improve food security.

It recommends expanding irrigation, introducing climate-resistant crop varieties, improving farming techniques, restoring damaged landscapes, and strengthening agricultural support services.

Approximately $500 million would be needed to expand irrigation by 2050. Better land management, reforestation, and soil conservation could also help farmers maintain productivity while reducing environmental damage.

Cities face equally serious challenges. Bujumbura and Gatumba are particularly exposed to flooding, which damages homes, roads, businesses, and public services.

The report proposes approximately $750 million in flood protection investments that could benefit around one million people by 2050.

Improved drainage systems, stronger roads, reliable drinking water, and better sanitation would reduce disaster losses while supporting trade and economic activity.

For traders, stronger transport networks could reduce delivery disruptions and losses of agricultural products. For consumers, improved farming and infrastructure could help stabilize food supplies and prices.

Minerals and Renewable Energy Could Drive Economic Growth

Burundi has opportunities to diversify its economy through mineral development, renewable energy, and private investment.

Nickel deposits, particularly at Musongati, could generate export earnings, attract investors, and create employment. However, successful development would require reliable electricity, improved roads, transparent regulations, and environmental protection.

The country's hydropower resources also offer significant potential, although only a small share has been developed.

Expanding electricity access through hydropower, solar energy, and improved distribution networks could support agricultural processing, manufacturing, and small businesses.

The report emphasizes that climate action should be connected with broader economic reforms rather than treated as a separate environmental issue.

Economic simulations show why this matters. Under business-as-usual conditions, Burundi's economy could grow by an average of only 2.3 percent annually. Under an adverse climate scenario, economic output could be nearly 6 percent lower by 2050.

However, stronger reforms combined with climate-resilient investments could support average annual economic growth of approximately 6 percent between 2025 and 2050.

Under this more ambitious scenario, real GDP per capita could increase from $302 in 2024 to approximately $810 in 2050.

A $6.2 Billion Investment Challenge for Policymakers

Financing remains one of Burundi's biggest development challenges.

The country's climate commitments require approximately $3.6 billion, including $3.2 billion dependent on external financial support. Yet annual climate finance averaged only about $205 million during 2020–2021.

The report outlines approximately $6.2 billion in priority investments through 2050, covering agricultural adaptation, infrastructure, energy, environmental restoration, and social protection. These figures represent investment needs rather than funding already secured.

International development partners could play a major role by providing affordable financing, technical assistance, and support for institutional reforms.

Policymakers must also improve public financial management, strengthen investment regulations, and encourage private-sector participation.

Expanding social protection would help vulnerable households cope with floods, crop failures, and rising living costs.

The report concludes that Burundi's development prospects depend on combining climate resilience with economic transformation. With timely investment, stronger institutions, and international cooperation, the country could reduce poverty, protect livelihoods, and build a more productive and sustainable economy.