Politics of census delay differ in New Jersey, Virginia

The Census Bureau's missed deadlines could be a boon for Virginia Republicans but a bust for the New Jersey GOP — and the reverse for Democrats — as the only two states with legislative elections this year do so without the data they need to draw new boundaries.

The 2021 election cycle, the first since Democrats took control of the White House and Congress, is also supposed to be the first conducted after redistricting based on changes captured in the once-a-decade census required under the Constitution.

The delay in census figures means Virginia and New Jersey will continue to use decade-old maps that don't reflect growth in areas such as northern Virginia and may undercount people of colour, factors that could contribute to shifts in their statehouses.

The two are the only states with statewide elections in 2021; the unusual election cycle often provides an early window into the electorate's view on a new presidential administration.

In past decades, the Census Bureau has given Virginia and New Jersey priority in receiving their redistricting data so they can complete the process in time to run their elections. This year, the entire census has been delayed by a combination of factors, and a top Census Bureau official said Wednesday that states won't receive the necessary redistricting data for legislative boundaries until July.

That's too late to accommodate Virginia and New Jersey, so they will have little choice but to conduct elections this year under the existing boundaries.

In New Jersey, voters approved a constitutional amendment to leave the existing lines in place for 2021 if the state didn't receive the requisite census data by February, so its path forward is clear.

But that doesn't mean everyone is pleased with how things turned out.

Republicans gripe that the amendment will lock in a Democratic advantage for another year, and apart from political party considerations, there are worries that people of colour — particularly Hispanics and Asian Americans — whose population has grown an estimated 20 per cent over the past decade won't be fairly represented.

Democrats hold a 25-15 edge in the state Senate and a 52-28 advantage in the Assembly.

Jon Bramnick, the Republican Assembly minority leader, but the amendment that carries forward the current map in stark terms: "It's bad." "It has kept Republicans in the minority for 20 years. Why would we want to keep a map that has kept Democrats in the majority?" he said.

The nonpartisan Princeton Gerrymandering Project raised concerns that the amendment could put people of colour at a disadvantage.

"It would ... dilute the voting power of these communities immediately, in 2021," said the project's director, Sam Wang, during a legislative hearing. "A two-year delay in redistricting would likely harm communities of colour, who have grown in population in areas across the state." Democratic Assemblyman John McKeon sponsored the amendment.