Finland's Stubb seen as frontrunner in presidential run-off

In an interview with Reuters last month, Stubb said there would be no Russian pillar in Finland's foreign policy for now: "Politically, there will be no relations with the president of Russia or with the Russian political leadership until they stop the war in Ukraine." Stubb is in favour of deep NATO cooperation, such as allowing the transport of nuclear weapons through Finnish soil and placing some NATO troops permanently in Finland.

Centre-right Alexander Stubb of the National Coalition Party is the frontrunner in Finland's presidential run-off on Sunday, according to opinion polls, as the Nordic country elects a new leader of its security and foreign policy. Nearly 46% of those entitled to vote cast their ballots in advance of Sunday, official data showed, with the first results from advance votes to be published shortly after polls close at 1800 GMT. The winner is expected to be known by around 2100 GMT. The vote marks a new era in Finland, which for decades has elected presidents to foster diplomacy, in particular with neighbouring Russia, and opted not to join military alliances so it could soothe tensions between Moscow and NATO.

But Finns changed their minds about playing that role after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, in a rapid u-turn that led to Finland joining NATO in April last year. Now under the Western alliance's security umbrella, the new president will replace Sauli Niinisto, who is retiring after two six-year terms in which he earned the nickname "the Putin Whisperer" for his previous close ties with the Russian leader.

Niinisto's successor will have a central role in defining Finland's NATO policies, while leading on overall foreign and security policy in close cooperation with the government and acting as a commander-in-chief of the armed forces. "I'm sure I'll get a few butterflies coming in about I'd say 7.55 in the evening tonight before we get the pre-vote at 8 o'clock (1800 GMT), but feeling good," Stubb told reporters as he cast his vote in the capital region in Espoo on Sunday morning.

NO RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA Stubb, a former prime minister, won the election's first round on Jan. 28 with 27.2% of the ballots ahead of liberal Green Party member Pekka Haavisto on 25.8%. He has also led Haavisto in surveys, most recently by 6-8 percentage points.

Both candidates are pro-European and strong supporters of Ukraine who have taken a tough stance towards Russia in their campaigns. Lauri, a 36-year-old IT worker who voted in Helsinki, named Russia as the main task the new president will face.

"Obviously we all know that we are in a difficult position nowadays looking at Russia, the entire turbulence in the world today. So I think that's the biggest threat and biggest issue that we have," he told Reuters on Saturday, without naming his preferred candidate. In an interview with Reuters last month, Stubb said there would be no Russian pillar in Finland's foreign policy for now:

"Politically, there will be no relations with the president of Russia or with the Russian political leadership until they stop the war in Ukraine." Stubb is in favour of deep NATO cooperation, such as allowing the transport of nuclear weapons through Finnish soil and placing some NATO troops permanently in Finland. He does not support storing nuclear weapons in Finland, however.

"At times, a nuclear weapon is a guarantee of peace," Stubb said at a debate on Tuesday. Russia has threatened Finland with retaliation in response to its NATO membership and a defence cooperation agreement signed with the U.S. in December.

Haavisto, a former foreign minister who has also served as a U.N. peace negotiator and is known as a human rights defender, has called for a more cautious approach. Haavisto wants to maintain Finland's ban on nuclear weapons on its soil and considers a permanent NATO troop deployment unnecessary for the current security situation.

If elected, Haavisto would become Finland's first openly gay president, which opinion polls ahead of the vote showed was a reason for some voters to reject him. "I think it has been very, very uncalled for to even bring that into discussion because obviously if you are heterosexual or homosexual even in job interviews you would not bring that as an issue," Iina Kuusimaki, a 51-year-old artist studying curating, told Reuters in Helsinki ahead of Sunday's vote.