Ireland's Simon Harris on track to be next prime minister

Fine Gael governs as part of a four-year old coalition with Fianna Fail and Green party under a novel rotation agreement between the historic centre-right rivals, who emerged from opposing sides of Ireland's 1920s civil war. Polls suggest the current three-party coalition stands a chance of being re-elected but nationalists Sinn Fein have a significant lead over both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.

Ireland's Simon Harris emerged on Thursday as the clear frontrunner to become the country's next prime minister after other potential candidates said they would not run to replace the outgoing Leo Varadkar. Whoever steps into the void left by Varadkar's shock exit will have no more than a year to save his party from defeat at a general election that could see the nationalist Sinn Fein party replace it as the lead party in government.

Varadkar announced his departure on Wednesday, citing personal and political reasons, prompting an internal contest within the governing Fine Gael party to replace him ahead of parliamentary elections due by early 2025. Harris, currently Minister for Further and Higher Education and best known domestically for his time as health minister during the COVID-19 pandemic, will likely be the only candidate if, as expected, he confirms his intention to run on Thursday.

Harris, a graduate of the youth arm of Fine Gael and lifelong politician, has received support publicly from many in the parliamentary party with others reported to be waiting for him to announce his candidacy. Any rival candidate would still have until Monday to enter the race but others seen as possible contenders, including Enterprise Minister Simon Coveney, and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe have ruled themselves out.

Harris, 37, would become the country's youngest prime minister if elected, surpassing Varadkar, who was 38 when he was first appointed in 2017. He is one of Ireland's most visible government ministers, with 92,000 followers on TikTok and 1.8 million likes for videos that occasionally dip into bizarrely awkward territory. He left college before completing his undergraduate degree and had settled on a career in politics only a few years after he was old enough to vote.

DAMAGE LIMITATION? Fine Gael governs as part of a four-year old coalition with Fianna Fail and Green party under a novel rotation agreement between the historic centre-right rivals, who emerged from opposing sides of Ireland's 1920s civil war.

Polls suggest the current three-party coalition stands a chance of being re-elected but nationalists Sinn Fein have a significant lead over both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the IRA, is already the biggest party in Northern Ireland's government and to become the lead party in government on both sides of the Irish border would be major milestone in its quest for a united Ireland.

The party, once shunned by the political establishment, has its strongest support among young adults - a cohort of newer voters that are largely unconcerned by nationalist politics and instead focused on the country's acute housing crisis and struggling health service. Eoin O'Malley, Associate Professor in Political Science at Dublin City University, says the best Harris can hope for is to limit the damage.

"Harris has more energy and so will be a better campaigner. He's also a little more assertive, and will bring the fight to challenge the sense that Sinn Fein is awaiting coronation." "But it'll be hard to make significant change to policy that delivers anything."