Goldman Sachs Lowers U.S. Recession Odds Due to Strong Jobless Claims and Retail Sales

Goldman Sachs has reduced the likelihood of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 20%, down from 25%, following positive jobless claims and retail sales data. This shift comes after a previous increase in recession odds due to a spike in unemployment rates. An upcoming jobs report could further influence these odds.

Goldman Sachs has lowered the chances of the United States slipping into a recession in the next 12 months to 20% from an earlier 25%, thanks to encouraging weekly jobless claims and retail sales data.

Previously, the brokerage had raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% after a notable jump in the unemployment rate in July triggered concerns about a potential downturn.

Thursday's jobless claims report indicated that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to a one-month low, while retail sales surged to their highest in 1.5 years this July.