Climate extremes reshape gender gaps in global labor markets

A new global study investigates how extreme climate conditions shape gender disparities in paid labor across the world, using a panel dataset covering 151 countries from 1995 to 2019. The research, submitted on arXiv, examines whether droughts and extreme wet conditions affect men’s and women’s labor force participation differently, and whether these effects vary by institutional and socioeconomic context.

Titled Droughts and Deluges: Effects of Climate Extremes on the Gender Gap in Labor Supply, the study shows that the same climate event can narrow gender gaps at one level of intensity and sharply widen them at another, with consequences that vary across regions, income levels, and institutional settings.

Climate extremes reshape gender gaps in uneven ways

The study focuses on the gender gap in labor force participation, defined as the difference between men’s and women’s engagement in paid work. Rather than treating climate shocks as binary events, the analysis measures the intensity of extreme droughts and extreme wet conditions using long-term climate indices that capture sustained deviations in moisture availability.

The results reveal two distinct non-linear patterns. Droughts exhibit a U-shaped relationship with the gender gap in paid labor. At low to moderate drought intensities, the gender gap tends to narrow. In these conditions, women increase their participation in paid work, often as a coping response to declining household income or agricultural losses. This form of labor supply expansion reflects distress-driven entry into the workforce rather than improved economic opportunity.

As droughts intensify, however, the pattern reverses. Severe droughts widen the gender gap as women are pulled out of paid employment. The study links this shift to rising unpaid care and domestic burdens, including water collection, food preparation under scarcity, and caregiving for children and elderly family members affected by malnutrition or illness. At high drought intensity, these demands outweigh income pressures, pushing women out of the labor market while men’s employment declines less sharply.

Extreme wet conditions follow a different trajectory. Here, the relationship with the gender gap is inverted U-shaped. Mild excess wetness initially expands gender inequality in paid labor, as flooding, disease exposure, and mobility constraints disproportionately increase women’s unpaid work. As wet conditions become more severe, however, the gender gap begins to shrink. Widespread flooding and storm damage reduce male employment and increase unemployment, while women’s participation stabilizes or rises through distress-driven labor supply.

This divergence helps explain why earlier country-level studies have produced mixed results on whether floods and droughts help or harm women’s labor market outcomes. The study shows that the direction of the effect depends not only on the type of climate shock but on its severity.

Institutions and resilience determine who bears the burden

The research highlights the decisive role of institutional context. Countries’ exposure to disaster-related displacement, women’s legal empowerment, and overall resilience to climate shocks all shape how gender gaps respond to extreme weather.

In countries with high disaster-displacement risk, extreme wet conditions have particularly strong effects on gender inequality. Sudden floods are more likely to trigger displacement, disrupt livelihoods, and increase household insecurity. In these settings, mild wet shocks widen gender gaps as women shoulder greater unpaid responsibilities, while severe wet shocks narrow gaps as employment losses spread across the labor force.

Drought effects are most pronounced in countries with moderate displacement risk. Because droughts unfold slowly, households initially respond by reallocating labor rather than migrating. Women, especially in agriculture-dependent economies, often increase paid work during early drought stages. As droughts deepen, limited mobility, gender norms, and rising domestic workloads combine to push women out of the labor market, widening gender gaps.

Women’s legal and institutional empowerment emerges as another critical factor. In countries with low to moderate levels of women’s empowerment, the U-shaped drought pattern is especially strong. Where women face legal barriers to mobility, asset ownership, or employment, climate stress amplifies existing inequalities. Mild shocks push women into paid work out of necessity, while severe shocks reinforce traditional gender roles that confine women to unpaid labor.

On the other hand, countries with high levels of women’s empowerment show far greater stability. In these settings, climate extremes have weaker and often statistically insignificant effects on gender gaps in paid labor. Stronger legal protections and economic rights allow women to remain engaged in the labor market even as climate pressures rise.

National resilience to climate change further mediates outcomes. Countries with low net resilience, measured by their ability to adapt, govern, and invest in climate responses, experience the sharpest widening of gender gaps during extreme droughts and wet conditions. Limited infrastructure, weak social protection systems, and high dependence on climate-sensitive sectors intensify the labor burden placed on women. More resilient countries are better able to absorb shocks without forcing women into distress-driven labor or unpaid care work.

Implications for climate and labor policy

The study challenges the assumption that climate shocks have uniform effects on gender inequality. The same drought or flood can narrow or widen gender gaps depending on intensity, institutional context, and resilience. Policies that treat climate impacts as linear risk missing these turning points.

The findings highlight the importance of integrating gender considerations into climate adaptation strategies. Infrastructure investments that reduce water scarcity, improve sanitation, and protect against flooding can directly reduce the unpaid labor burdens that push women out of paid work during extreme events. Similarly, social protection measures such as cash transfers, unemployment benefits, and childcare support can help households cope with income loss without relying on women’s unpaid labor.

Third, strengthening women’s legal and economic empowerment emerges as a form of climate resilience. Countries with stronger protections for women’s rights experience weaker gendered labor disruptions during climate shocks. This suggests that gender equality policies are not only social interventions but also adaptive strategies in the face of climate volatility.

The research also highlights the limits of labor market responses alone. While distress-driven increases in women’s labor supply during mild shocks may temporarily narrow gender gaps, they do not reflect improved economic opportunity. Without supportive institutions, these gains are fragile and often reversed as climate stress intensifies.

The study also points to the need for more nuanced global climate metrics.