Global temperatures set to break records in during next 5 years

Global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and a naturally occurring El Niño weather pattern, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Wednesday. There is a **66 per cent likelihood** that the annual average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027, will be more than 1.5°C above pre- industrial levels for at least one year. ## **Warmest year ever** And there is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period, will **be the warmest on record**. “A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months and this will combine with human-induced climate change **to push global temperatures into uncharted territory** ,” he said. “This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared,” said Petteri Taalas.  © UNEP/Nathanial Brown Off Demak’s coast, global warming is driving up sea levels, waves and currents have strengthened, and a protective belt of mangrove forest has been cut back, leaving the area prone to flooding. ## **Some key facts** * Typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops, in this case, that means 2024. * There is a 98 per cent chance of at least one in the next five years **beating the temperature record set in 2016** , when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño. * Arctic warming is disproportionately high. Compared to the 1991-2020 average, the temperature anomaly is predicted to be more than **three times as large** as the global expected anomaly when considering the next five northern hemisphere extended winters. * Predicted rain patterns for the May to September 2023-2027 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased rainfall in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, and reduced rainfall for this season over the Amazon and parts of Australia.  UNEP/Lisa Murray Water is becoming increasing scarce in arid and semi-arid parts of Sudan. ## **Paris Agreement** In addition to increasing global temperatures, human-induced greenhouse gases are leading to more ocean heating and acidification, sea ice and glacier melt, sea level rise and more extreme weather. The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all nations **to substantially reduce** global greenhouse gas emissions to limit the global temperature increase in this century to 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5°C, to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says that climate-related risks for global warming are higher than **1.5 °C but lower than 2 °C.** The new report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress (22 May to 2 June) which will discuss how to strengthen weather and climate services to support **climate change adaptation**. Priorities for discussion at Congress include the UN’s Early Warnings for All initiative to protect people from increasingly extreme weather and a new Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Infrastructure to inform climate mitigation.

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