Breathing Hazard: Why Air Pollution in Termez Has Become a Major Public Health Threat

A new UN-backed scientific assessment finds that air pollution in Termez, Uzbekistan is dangerously high year-round, driven by dust storms, winter heating, traffic, and agricultural emissions, with particulate matter far exceeding health limits. The report warns of serious health and economic impacts but says targeted action on cleaner heating, dust control, and better monitoring could sharply improve air quality.

Termez, a sunbaked city in southern Uzbekistan, has long lived with dust and dry winds. But new scientific evidence shows that the air residents breathe is far more dangerous than previously understood. A recent assessment by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Finnish Meteorological Institute, conducted with local experts at the request of Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change, provides the first detailed picture of air pollution in Termez, and the findings are alarming.

Using hourly data from the city’s only automatic air quality monitoring station between mid-2023 and the end of 2024, along with satellite observations and weather data, researchers found that particulate pollution in Termez is consistently extreme. Levels of harmful particles in the air exceed both national limits and international health guidelines throughout the year, placing Termez among the most polluted urban areas in the country.

Pollution Levels Far Above Safe Limits

The most serious problem is particulate matter, tiny particles suspended in the air that can penetrate deep into the lungs. In 2024, average annual concentrations reached about 187 micrograms per cubic metre for PM₁₀ and 55 micrograms per cubic metre for PM₂.₅. These levels are several times higher than what the World Health Organization considers safe, and even exceed Uzbekistan’s own air quality standards.

While gases such as nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide appeared relatively low, the report warns that measurement problems make those results uncertain. By contrast, particulate data were reliable and formed the backbone of the analysis. Fine particles, especially PM₂.₅, pose the greatest health risk because they can enter the bloodstream and are linked to heart disease, lung illness, cancer, and early death.

Who Pays the Highest Price?

Although everyone in Termez is exposed to polluted air, some groups are hit harder than others. Women face higher risks, partly because many households still rely on polluting fuels for cooking and heating. National survey data show that nearly half of households in Uzbekistan use such fuels, and women are often responsible for managing household energy. Children and older people are also especially vulnerable, as their bodies are less able to cope with polluted air.

The economic costs are equally serious. While city-level health estimates for Termez are not yet available, earlier studies suggest that air pollution costs Uzbekistan billions of dollars in lost productivity and health damage. Reducing pollution is therefore not only about protecting health, but also about protecting livelihoods and economic stability.

Dust, Wind, and Winter Smoke

Nature plays a major role in Termez’s air quality crisis. The city sits near arid landscapes that easily release dust during strong winds. In summer, sand and dust storms sharply increase pollution levels, especially coarse particles like PM₁₀. The study shows a clear link between wind speed and rising dust concentrations, confirming that natural dust is a major driver of pollution.

But human activity makes matters worse, particularly in winter. During cold months, pollution spikes as people burn fuel to heat their homes. Despite widespread access to natural gas, evidence suggests that coal, oil products, biomass, or even waste are still used. These wintertime emissions create sharp peaks in fine particles, trapping pollution close to the ground when winds are calm.

Traffic also adds to the problem. Even though most vehicles run on natural gas, dust kicked up from roads remains a major source of particulate pollution. Agriculture contributes to this as well, through high ammonia emissions from fertilizers and livestock, which help form secondary fine particles in the air.

A Path Toward Cleaner Air

The report finds no major industrial polluters inside Termez, though satellite data show emissions from a large gas facility about 100 kilometres away. Smaller sources, construction dust, roadworks, and burning waste oil to heat greenhouses also add to local pollution.

Importantly, the study highlights gaps in air quality monitoring. While particle data are strong, gas measurements suffer from calibration problems, limiting long-term analysis. Building local technical capacity and improving data quality are the essential next steps.

Despite the grim picture, the message is not hopeless. Cleaner household heating, better dust management, improved traffic controls, smarter agricultural practices, and stronger monitoring systems could significantly reduce pollution. With targeted, evidence-based action, Termez could transform its air quality challenge into a model for cleaner, healthier cities across Uzbekistan and other arid regions