Hotter Oceans, Stronger El Niño, Higher Risks: A Dangerous Climate Alignment

The World Meteorological Organization has warned that El Niño is intensifying and is expected to become strong during August–October 2026, reshaping temperature and rainfall patterns across large parts of the world. With unusually warm oceans and a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole adding to the signal, governments face a narrowing window to prepare for droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Niño is likely to become a strong event between August and October 2026, raising the probability of disruptive heat and rainfall patterns across much of the world. Its emergence alongside unusually warm oceans and a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole creates a compound climate threat, giving governments a limited window to prepare for droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires before risks intensify.

El Niño is strengthening at a time when ocean temperatures are already unusually high. According to the WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea-surface temperature anomalies in key Pacific monitoring regions could exceed 2.9°C during the August–October period.

Tropical Atlantic waters are also expected to remain warmer than average, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely to emerge. The Indian Ocean Dipole is a pattern of contrasting sea temperatures across the Indian Ocean that can alter rainfall in surrounding regions. Each of these systems can influence weather independently. Their possible convergence makes the coming season more difficult to manage because it may intensify existing hazards or produce overlapping emergencies across different regions.

The WMO expects above-normal temperatures across much of the globe, with particularly pronounced warming projected over Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, large parts of South America and New Zealand. Seasonal forecasts describe increased probabilities over broad areas rather than guaranteed local outcomes. Even so, the geographical scale of the outlook is significant.

Higher temperatures can increase pressure on electricity systems, water supplies, agriculture and health services. They can also magnify other hazards. Dry soil and vegetation may become more vulnerable to wildfire, while extreme heat can deepen the effects of drought and make water shortages more difficult to manage.

The World Faces a Split Screen of Drought and Deluge

The rainfall outlook reveals the uneven nature of the threat. A strong El Niño does not produce one universal weather pattern. It can expose some regions to excess rain while leaving others with persistent dryness. Above-normal rainfall is expected across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N and southeastern South America.

For these regions, the danger may come from intense rainfall rather than its seasonal total alone. Heavy rain over short periods can overwhelm drainage systems, damage transport links, affect crops and increase the risk of flooding and landslides. At the same time, drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe.

These areas could face greater pressure on water resources and agriculture, particularly if below-normal rainfall coincides with unusually high temperatures. Reduced rainfall may lower soil moisture, strain irrigation systems and increase wildfire exposure.

The likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole could further influence conditions around the Indian Ocean, potentially strengthening drought risks in some countries and rainfall extremes in others. The result is a divided global outlook: too much water in some places and too little in others. The divergence complicates international preparedness because governments and humanitarian agencies may need to respond to several types of climate emergency simultaneously.

Food systems are particularly exposed to such disruption. Flooding can destroy crops and restrict transport, while drought can reduce production and increase demand for irrigation. The severity of these consequences will depend on the timing and duration of weather conditions, as well as the resilience of local infrastructure and agricultural systems.

A Forecast Has Value Only When It Changes Decisions

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has stressed that forecasts cannot prevent disasters, but they can create time for governments and communities to act before impacts unfold. Climate science can identify elevated risks months in advance, but the protective value of that information depends on whether it triggers concrete decisions.

Flood-prone regions may need to review drainage capacity, evacuation procedures, emergency shelters and the readiness of hospitals and transport systems. Areas facing dryness may need closer monitoring of reservoirs, crops, livestock conditions and wildfire risks.

Seasonal forecasts can also guide agricultural planning, water allocation and emergency financing. But they must be translated into detailed national and local guidance. A broad warning about below-normal rainfall is of limited use to a farmer unless it becomes practical information about planting schedules, crop choices or water availability.

The WMO is expanding seasonal briefings, regional forecasts, technical exchanges and coordination with governments, United Nations agencies and humanitarian organisations. These efforts are intended to close the gap between climate information and preparedness.

However, institutional capacity varies widely. Some countries may have advanced forecasting systems but limited resources to reinforce infrastructure or fund early action. Others may struggle to deliver warnings to remote or marginalised communities, creating an enduring tension in disaster preparedness: authorities may know that a hazard is approaching without possessing the money, coordination or public trust needed to reduce exposure.

Early-warning systems must be judged by what happens after the warning is issued. Budget allocations, emergency plans, agricultural advisories and local communication will show whether governments are treating the forecast as actionable intelligence rather than a distant scientific projection.

The Real Test Begins Before the Extreme Weather Arrives

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that the strengthening El Niño is adding pressure to a planet already confronting record ocean temperatures, severe heatwaves and destructive wildfires. His warning connects the immediate seasonal threat with the broader reality of climate change. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but its effects are emerging in an already warmer world. That background warming can shape the severity of heat and influence the conditions in which droughts, fires and heavy rainfall occur.

The next several weeks will be crucial. Meteorological agencies will watch whether Pacific temperatures continue to rise as projected and whether the event reaches strong El Niño status. The emergence and strength of the Indian Ocean Dipole will also require close monitoring. Regional rainfall forecasts will need continual refinement because global climate patterns do not determine local outcomes with complete precision. National agencies will play a central role in identifying where risks are increasing and which populations or sectors are most exposed.

Governments should also be assessed on whether they act before losses occur. The most important indicators will include preparedness funding, water-management decisions, wildfire planning, public-health measures and support for climate-sensitive agriculture.

The WMO's warning offers something increasingly valuable in an era of climate volatility: advance notice. It cannot determine exactly where every flood, drought or fire will occur, but it can narrow the field of uncertainty and highlight where preparedness is most urgent.