Supercharged El Niño Raising Threat of Extreme Weather in World Into 2027

WMO expects the event to keep strengthening over the coming months and reach very strong intensity near the end of 2026, with related climate disruption continuing well into 2027.

El Niño is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific and could develop into a very strong climate event before the end of 2026, raising the risk of disruptive rainfall, severe drought, dangerous heat and other weather extremes across many parts of the world. A new update from the World Meteorological Organization forecasts a nearly 100% likelihood that El Niño conditions will continue through February 2027, an unusually confident prediction supported by powerful and closely aligned signals in the ocean and atmosphere.

The clarity of the forecast makes this update exceptional in WMO's 50-year history, since its global network of climate centres has rarely expressed such certainty about the persistence of an El Niño event. Governments, humanitarian agencies and weather services are being urged to use the coming months to strengthen early-warning systems, protect vulnerable communities and prepare essential sectors such as farming, health, energy and water management for conditions that may become increasingly difficult.

Pacific Ocean Heat Reveals the Extraordinary Strength of the Developing Event

El Niño forms when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal, changing winds, rainfall and atmospheric circulation far beyond the ocean where the warming begins. The pattern usually develops between March and June, reaches its greatest strength from November to February and lasts for around nine to twelve months, with some temperature effects continuing after the ocean event has passed its peak.

Measurements from the Niño 3.4 region show how rapidly the present event has intensified. Sea surface temperatures averaged about 1.5°C above normal between May and July 2026, climbed to 2°C above normal in July and reached weekly anomalies of roughly 2.2°C to 2.6°C between late July and mid-August. Even greater heat has accumulated beneath the ocean surface, where temperatures in some areas exceeded the average by more than 8°C during July and early August, creating a deep reservoir of warm water capable of sustaining further development.

WMO expects the event to keep strengthening over the coming months and reach very strong intensity near the end of 2026, with related climate disruption continuing well into 2027. UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the El Niño as being "supersized," warning that rising ocean temperatures and growing weather risks are placing the planet in dangerous territory, while WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo called for a level of preparation equal to the exceptional scale of the threat.

A Very Strong El Niño Will Not Affect Every Country in the Same Way

A powerful El Niño can rearrange rainfall and temperature patterns across continents, increasing the likelihood of drought in some regions while bringing intense rain and flooding to others. Its influence can also place pressure on food production, drinking-water supplies, electricity systems, hospitals, transport networks and household incomes, especially in communities already dealing with poverty, conflict, environmental damage or limited access to public services.

The strength of the event does not provide a complete picture of what any individual town, country or region will experience, since location, season and other climate systems can reshape the outcome. Conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans may strengthen, weaken or redirect familiar El Niño effects, making national and regional forecasts essential for decisions involving crops, reservoirs, emergency supplies and public-health planning.

WMO's forecasts for September to November 2026 indicate a greater chance of above-normal temperatures across almost every land region, accompanied by rainfall patterns that resemble the classic atmospheric response to a strong Pacific El Niño. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to develop and reach a seasonal average of around 0.9°C, while both the northern and southern tropical Atlantic are forecast to remain warmer than normal, adding further complexity to the weather patterns likely to unfold.

Early Warnings Can Turn Climate Forecasts Into Life-Saving Decisions

The lead time provided by modern climate forecasting gives communities a valuable chance to act before hazards become disasters. Farmers can adjust planting calendars and crop choices, water authorities can review reservoir operations, health systems can prepare for heat-related illness and disease outbreaks, while emergency agencies can position food, medicine, shelter and rescue equipment closer to areas facing greater danger.

WMO has begun a major mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, which remain the official sources of local forecasts and weather warnings. Regional Climate Centres and Climate Outlook Forums will translate the global picture into more detailed information suited to individual countries, helping decision-makers understand when risks may emerge and which communities or economic activities may face the greatest exposure.

El Niño is a naturally occurring part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is not caused by climate change. Its ability to influence weather thousands of kilometres away makes careful monitoring essential, especially when ocean temperatures reach exceptional levels, and multiple climate drivers are active at the same time. The months ahead will test whether accurate forecasts can be turned into practical protection before floods, drought, extreme heat and disrupted seasons begin changing everyday life.