India's Two-Week Weather Forecasts Help Farmers Save Crops and Use Water Wisely

India began testing extended-range forecasts for agriculture in 2014, gathering feedback from different parts of the country before the service became operational in 2018.

For farmers in Bargarh, Odisha, a weather warning issued on 8 May 2026 offered time to protect crops that were almost ready for harvest. The two-week forecast flagged possible rain and thunderstorms during 8–14 May and 15–21 May, prompting advice to harvest mature dry-season crops early, move produce somewhere safe and protect standing crops and livestock from strong winds.

The recommendations reached farmers through the Meghdoot and Damini digital platforms, with guidance matched to their crops' stage of growth. A warning about rain becomes far more useful when it tells a farmer what needs doing before the weather turns.

Across India, that approach is expanding the role of sub-seasonal forecasts, which look two to four weeks ahead. Five-day forecasts help with everyday decisions about irrigation, crop treatments and harvesting; a longer outlook gives farmers more room to organise sowing, manage water and nutrients, and prepare for pests.

In Assam, a rain forecast helped farmers sow again

India began testing extended-range forecasts for agriculture in 2014, gathering feedback from different parts of the country before the service became operational in 2018. The work centred on turning predictions into advice suited to a particular crop, location and stage of growth.

An early example came from Ganokdoloni village in Assam, where farmers had still not sown their rice by late March 2016. Their hesitation had roots in a difficult season: a severe dry spell from late November 2014 to early May 2015 had left seedlings short of water and sharply reduced yields, making farmers reluctant to plant the same rice again.

IMD forecast continuous rainfall during April, and farmers were advised to finish sowing in the first or second week. The rain arrived as predicted. Despite an initially less promising outlook than the previous year, farmers who followed the guidance completed sowing successfully.

Another test came in August 2016, when forecasts pointed to below-normal rainfall after sustained rain through July and early August. Wet conditions followed by sunny, hot and humid weather could encourage rice hispa, a leaf-feeding beetle that damages rice plants.

The main monsoon rice crop was especially vulnerable in places where flooding had delayed transplanting, leaving plants at an early growth stage. Farmers received advice to take preventive measures. The expected dry spell followed the rain, creating conditions favourable for infestation, and those who acted on the guidance avoided rice hispa losses.

Giving grape growers a clearer picture of water needs

Around Nashik in Maharashtra, grape growers received irrigation guidance in 2023 that brought several sources of information together: rainfall forecasts, satellite measurements of soil moisture, field observations and a model tracking water movement through soil and plants.

The system offered water-planning information roughly two weeks ahead, supported by detailed irrigation advice for the next one to seven days. It also accounted for uncertainty in the forecasts, an essential consideration when deciding how much water a crop will need.

Farm evaluations recorded water savings of 20%–45% during the monsoon growing season and 17%–35% during the dry-season crop cycle, with no loss of yield.

In Madhya Pradesh, researchers combined weekly extended-range forecasts with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, a computer model that simulates crop growth. Their study followed rain-fed rice across 10 districts over three monsoon growing seasons.

Including forecasts during grain formation and ripening improved the model's yield estimates. During the 2019 ripening stage, for example, prediction error fell from about 393 kilograms per hectare to 80 kilograms per hectare.

Useful forecasts need advice farmers can act on

These experiences show how much depends on the information surrounding a forecast. Soil conditions, crop development, satellite observations, crop models and local knowledge help turn a broad weather outlook into a practical decision, with forecast uncertainty made part of the advice.

Better accuracy, finer local detail and more frequent updates could strengthen these services. Advances in artificial intelligence and digital delivery could also help guidance reach more farmers. The real measure of success is what happens on the farm: whether advice arrives early enough, makes sense for the crop in the field and gives farmers a clear action to take.