Rising Heat Could Cost Three African Economies $67 Billion a Year and 2.46 Million Jobs’ Worth of Work by 2040

Rising workplace temperatures are already eroding working hours and economic productivity in Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal. New ILO studies warn that heat stress could cost the three economies US$67 billion annually and eliminate the equivalent of 2.46 million full-time jobs in working hours by 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway, exposing a growing economic threat that extends far beyond agriculture.

Rising temperatures are becoming an increasingly costly constraint on economic activity in Africa, with Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal facing substantial losses in working time and productivity. New studies by the International Labour Organization (ILO) project that workplace heat stress could eliminate the equivalent of 2.46 million full-time jobs in productive working hours across the three countries by 2040, even under a low-emissions pathway.

The economic consequences extend beyond employment. Combined annual GDP losses could reach US$67 billion by 2040, measured against the historical reference period. More significantly, the studies reveal that heat-related economic disruption is already occurring, with all three countries recording substantial additional losses in working time and output in 2023.

The findings expose a difficult economic reality: rising temperatures are affecting not only the conditions under which people work but also the volume of productive activity their economies can sustain. Agriculture and construction face particularly high exposure, while manufacturing, transport, trade, services and informal enterprises are also affected.

Climate Change Is Quietly Reducing the Productive Capacity of Labour

Workplace heat stress creates an economic burden that conventional employment figures may not immediately reveal. Workers can remain employed while losing productive hours because rising temperatures constrain their ability to perform physically demanding activities. The resulting reduction in working time translates into measurable losses in economic output without necessarily appearing as unemployment.

The ILO expresses these reductions as full-time equivalent jobs, converting lost working hours into the corresponding volume of full-time employment. Consequently, the projected 2.46 million figure represents lost labour capacity rather than an equivalent number of people becoming unemployed. This distinction is essential for understanding the scale and nature of the economic threat.

Agriculture illustrates the vulnerability most clearly. Activities requiring sustained physical effort under outdoor conditions face direct exposure to rising temperatures, making productive working time particularly sensitive to heat stress. Construction shares similar characteristics, although the studies indicate that heat-related productivity constraints extend into sectors with considerably different working environments.

The involvement of manufacturing, transport, trade and services broadens the economic concern. Heat exposure is not restricted to agricultural production or outdoor employment, while informal workers and enterprises also experience its effects. Consequently, assessing economic vulnerability requires examining how different sectors depend on labour performed under increasingly difficult thermal conditions.

The 2023 findings reinforce the urgency of this challenge. Additional losses compared with historical conditions demonstrate that climate-related workplace heat is already affecting economic performance. Future projections describe an intensification of an existing burden rather than the emergence of an entirely unfamiliar economic risk.

Ethiopia Bears the Largest Absolute Burden, but Sectoral Exposure Tells a Wider Story

Ethiopia accounts for the largest projected working-time losses among the three economies. In 2023, rising workplace heat caused additional losses exceeding one million full-time equivalent jobs compared with an average year in the historical reference period. Agriculture represented approximately three-quarters of those losses, highlighting its central role in the country's exposure.

By 2040, Ethiopia's working-time losses could reach approximately 1.78 million full-time equivalent jobs under a low-emissions pathway. Annual GDP losses are projected at US$33.3 billion. The combination of substantial agricultural exposure and large economic losses demonstrates how rising temperatures can place pressure on a major productive sector.

Ghana faces a smaller absolute employment-equivalent loss but a considerable economic burden. Workplace heat stress accounted for more than 345,000 additional full-time equivalent jobs lost in 2023, with agriculture responsible for approximately two-thirds. By 2040, the losses could increase to around 550,000 full-time equivalents.

Ghana's projected annual GDP losses reach US$23.2 billion, indicating that substantial economic damage can accompany working-time losses considerably below Ethiopia's level. The contrast also shows why employment-equivalent figures and GDP projections must be examined together rather than treated as interchangeable measures of economic vulnerability.

Senegal presents a different pattern. Nearly 72,000 additional full-time equivalent jobs were lost in 2023, with services and agriculture particularly affected. By 2040, projected working-time losses could reach approximately 129,000 full-time equivalents, alongside annual GDP losses estimated at US$10.5 billion.

Although Ethiopia leads in absolute losses, the figures do not establish which country faces the greatest proportional economic burden. Such comparisons would require examining losses relative to national employment and economic output. Senegal's concentration of exposure in services and agriculture also illustrates why employment structures shape the distribution of heat-related damage.

A $67 Billion Warning Raises Difficult Questions About Economic Resilience

The combined GDP projection points to a growing economic constraint that extends beyond individual workplaces. Reduced labour capacity can limit productive activity across multiple sectors, while the concentration of exposure in agriculture creates particular challenges for economies where the sector accounts for substantial working-time losses.

Informal employment adds another dimension. The ILO identifies informal workers and enterprises among those affected, indicating that workplace heat stress reaches economic activities beyond formal employment arrangements.

The low-emissions pathway is particularly significant because substantial losses remain projected even under that scenario. Lower emissions therefore do not automatically remove the economic consequences of rising workplace temperatures. Nevertheless, the estimates remain projections, and their eventual scale will depend on conditions and assumptions underlying the assessments.

For governments and enterprises, the findings raise questions about how future economic planning can account for reductions in working time. The studies identify the burden but do not establish the effectiveness of particular workplace adjustments or national responses, leaving the potential for limiting future productivity losses unresolved.

The immediate analytical challenge is distinguishing the scale of economic exposure from the eventual economic outcome. Monitoring future working-time losses, sectoral patterns and changes in economic output will be essential for understanding whether the projected burden is materialising and how differently structured economies experience it.

Across Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal, rising heat is already diminishing the amount of work that can be performed. The key warning is not simply that temperatures will rise, but that economic capacity could increasingly depend on how much productive working time remains possible as workplace conditions become hotter.