Recovery in global trade could be disrupted by ongoing pandemic effects: WTO

Global trade is showing signs of bouncing back from the impact of the coronavirus-induced slump but any recovery could be disrupted by the ongoing pandemic effects, according to the WTO. "World trade shows signs of bouncing back from a deep, COVID-19 induced slump, but WTO economists caution that any recovery could be disrupted by the ongoing pandemic effects," it said.

Global trade is showing signs of bouncing back from the impact of the coronavirus-induced slump but any recovery could be disrupted by the ongoing pandemic effects, according to the WTO. The World Trade Organization (WTO) said it now forecasts a 9.2 per cent decline in the volume of global merchandise trade for 2020, followed by a 7.2 per cent rise in 2021. "These estimates are subject to an unusually high degree of uncertainty since they depend on the evolution of the pandemic and government responses to it," the WTO said in a statement on Tuesday. It said that strong trade performance in June and July have brought some signs of optimism for overall trade growth in 2020. Trade growth in COVID-19 related products was particularly strong in these months, showing trade's ability to help governments obtain needed supplies, it added. "World trade shows signs of bouncing back from a deep, COVID-19 induced slump, but WTO economists caution that any recovery could be disrupted by the ongoing pandemic effects," it said. "The incidence of COVID-19 worldwide has fallen from its peak in the spring, but it remains stubbornly high in many areas," Deputy Director-General Yi Xiaozhun said, adding one of the greatest risks for the global economy in the aftermath of the pandemic would be a descent into protectionism.