COVID-19 impact: 8.7 lakh expats returned to Kerala, over half of them due to job loss: Official Data

We shouldinstead worry about how to help better, how to make them moreskilled, helping better migration later, he said.The expert said the better news was that many werereturning to their previous workplace or a new workplace in anew country.Ernakulam had maximum number of returnees overall at2,48,113, followed by Thiruvananthapuram with 1,66,806, andMalappuram 1,43,709 and Kasargod had the least at 32,959 afterWayanad with 34,838 returnees.But among those returning from overseas, Malappuram hadthe highest number at 1,40,931 followed by Kozhikode at 89,166and Thrissur at 86,887.

The COVID-19 pandemic hasforced a whopping 8.7 lakh expatriates from Kerala to returnhome, most of them from the Gulf, since last May with amajority of 5.67 lakh citing job loss as the reason for it,according to official data.

The data from the Non-Resident Keralites Affairs (NORKA)department as of Thursday also showed that 1,11,151 of the13,27,330 Keralites who came back from other parts of thecountry also cited loss of jobs as the reason for theirreturn.

The second biggest reason cited by the returnees (2.08lakh) was their job visas. The rest include senior citizens,or children, and family members of expats.

Since May, when travel was allowed after the easing ofthe first COVID-19 lockdown, a total of 8,69,730 peoplereturned from overseas, the department said.

Of those returning from within the country, the maximumnumber of people returned from neighbouring Tamil Nadu (3.12lakh), followed by Karnataka (3.11 lakh) and Maharashtra (1.37lakh).

Overall 21.89 lakh Keralites have come back to the statefrom abroad and from within the country.

Of those returning from abroad, 8,62,544 used the airroute to return, and 7,186 took the sea route.

''As many as 8,69,730 Keralites returned from overseasbetween the first week of May and today (January 7). Of them,as many as 5,67,138 officially cited loss of job as the reasonfor returning, according to the NORKA.

There were 40 lakh Keralites living/working abroad and13.73 lakh elsewhere in the country. The state has a residentpopulation of 3.48 crore.

However, S Irudaya Rajan, an expert on internationalmigration, doesnt agree with the official numbers, sayingtens of thousands have already gone back to their places ofwork, some of them even with new jobs.

''I dont think the official numbers on the Norka portalare true, especially the job-loss figures. While the actualnumber of returnees could be true, the vast majority of themciting job losses may not be factually correct,'' he told PTI.

Rajan is the chair professor at the Ministry of OverseasIndian affairs research unit on international migration atthe Centre for Development Studies in Thiruvananthapuram.

He said there were about 25 lakh Keralites in the Gulfnations and at best five lakh of them would have returned, yetthat will make it the highest in the past 50 years.

There are one crore Indians in the six of the mostmigrant-friendly Gulf nations. Even during the Kuwait or Iraqwars, the numbers of people who were forced out were farfewer, he said.

Rajan said he has undertaken a study and would come outwith ''a more accurate number'' once it was completed in a fewmonths from now.

''We should not worry too much on how many have come back,as many are going back or have gone back already. We shouldinstead worry about how to help better, how to make them moreskilled, helping better migration later,'' he said.

The expert said the better news was that many werereturning to their previous workplace or a new workplace in anew country.

Ernakulam had maximum number of returnees overall at2,48,113, followed by Thiruvananthapuram with 1,66,806, andMalappuram 1,43,709 and Kasargod had the least at 32,959 afterWayanad with 34,838 returnees.

But among those returning from overseas, Malappuram hadthe highest number at 1,40,931 followed by Kozhikode at 89,166and Thrissur at 86,887. Idukki had the lowest at 7,370.

Malappuram with a larger concentration of Muslimpopulation has the highest penetration of families with expatsin the Gulf region followed by Kozhikode.

Of those returnees from abroad, maximum (3.15 lakh) camethrough the airport in Kochi followed by Kozhikode airport(2.58 lakh), Thiruvananthapuram (1.76 lakh) and Kannur airport(1.09 lakh). Cochin Port was used by 2,955 people.

The job losses of expatriates is not a good developmentfor the state whose economy has been heavily leaning ontoremittances ever since the Gulf boom began in the 1960s.

Among the states, Kerala has the highest NRI deposits ataround Rs 93,000 crore in 2019 and the government wasexpecting this to cross the Rs one lakh crore mark last year,though it has not materialised due to the pandemic impact.

Rajan also disagreed with the fear of a steep fall inremittances saying even the World Bank which had at the peakof the pandemic predicted a 23-25 per cent fall in remittancesin 2020 has later revised it to be around 15 per cent, partlybecause of the steep fall in the value of rupee.

In the worst case scenario, the NRI deposits would havefallen by 10-12 per cent, he said, attributing it to theingenuity of Keralites who take advantage of the record lowinterest in their country of work by borrowing cheap in localcurrencies and sending money back home.

According to an official of the State Bank of India,which accounts for close to 30 per cent of NRI deposits in thestates banking sector, the bank has been seeing a steadyincrease in NRI deposits during the pandemic months.

But he did not offer a number partly because of thefalling rupee.

Calls to the Federal Bank, which is the largest privatelender in the state catering to a large number of expats, didnot elicit any response..