SBI Report: India's Q1 GDP Growth Exceeds RBI Estimates

The State Bank of India report reveals India's GDP surged to 6.9% in Q1 FY26, surpassing earlier RBI estimates. However, projections indicate a slower full-year growth of 6.3% against RBI's 6.5%. The report highlights narrowing real-nominal GDP growth gaps, signaling potential deceleration masked by robust real growth.

In a detailed analysis, the State Bank of India (SBI) has reported that India's economy may have grown by an impressive 6.9% in the first quarter of the current financial year. This figure surpasses the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) earlier projection of 6.5%.

The report estimates Gross Value Added (GVA) to be 6.5% and places GDP growth firmly within the 6.8% – 7% range. According to SBI's findings, these figures align with past trajectories, suggesting a medium-term growth stabilizing pattern.

For the entirety of FY26, the report forecasts GDP growth to decelerate to 6.3%, slightly below the RBI's target of 6.5%. The analysis also notes a reduction in the gap between real and nominal GDP, which was significantly narrowed from 12 percentage points in Q1 FY23 to 3.4 points by Q4 FY25. With low inflation, the gap is expected to shrink further, potentially leading to an 8% nominal GDP for Q1 FY26.

(With inputs from agencies.)