Africa to Add 1.2m bpd Refining Capacity by 2030, OPEC Outlook Reveals

At the centre of this transformation is Nigeria’s 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and has already started reshaping West Africa’s fuel trade.

Africa is on track to add 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity by 2030, one of the fastest downstream expansions globally, according to the newly released 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook. The surge in refining projects represents a historic turning point for Africa’s pursuit of energy sovereignty, industrial growth, and investment attractiveness.

Mega Projects Leading the Expansion

At the centre of this transformation is Nigeria’s 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and has already started reshaping West Africa’s fuel trade. The refinery is reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products, potentially saving billions annually in foreign exchange.

Other major Nigerian projects include the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery, complementing Dangote’s output and anchoring Nigeria’s push to become a regional refining hub.

In Southern Africa, Angola is spearheading state-led efforts to build downstream capacity. By 2030, the country aims to commission both the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery and the 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery, enabling it to meet domestic fuel needs while positioning itself as a net exporter of refined products.

Uganda is advancing its own refining ambitions through a 60,000-bpd facility in Hoima, tied to the development of the Lake Albert oil basin. The project is considered critical to ensuring that Uganda captures value domestically as it becomes an oil-producing nation.

Modular Projects and North African Growth

Smaller but incremental modular refineries are also being rolled out in Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, the Republic of Congo, and additional Nigerian sites. These projects offer flexibility and scalability in regions where infrastructure deficits and financing challenges constrain large-scale developments.

In North Africa, Algeria’s Hassi Messaoud project, Libya’s Ubari Refinery, and Egypt’s Soukhna Refinery are advancing as governments seek to secure domestic supply, reduce imports, and capture higher refining margins.

Investment Needs: A $100 Billion Opportunity

OPEC projects that Africa will need over $40 billion in refining investments by 2030 to meet its mid-decade goals. Beyond 2030, that figure rises sharply, with an additional $60+ billion required for construction, modernization, and secondary processing upgrades.

This opens a $100 billion investment window for developers, institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, and private equity firms. With 86% of global refining capacity additions through 2050 expected in the Asia-Pacific, Africa, and the Middle East, Africa is increasingly seen as a high-growth frontier market.

African Energy Week: Deal-Making Platform

The upcoming African Energy Week (AEW) 2025 in Cape Town will be a focal point for governments, operators, and financiers to advance refinery projects and align policy incentives. AEW will serve as a matchmaking platform, connecting capital with opportunity, as countries look to reduce import bills and add value to domestic crude production.

Rising Domestic Consumption

Africa’s own consumption of petroleum products is projected to rise significantly – from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050. This increase in demand will reduce crude oil available for exports by over one million bpd, underscoring a structural shift toward internal value chains and domestic energy resilience.

A Strategic Inflection Point

Africa’s refining expansion is both a technical development and a strategic inflection point. If the continent seizes this momentum, it could transform from a raw crude exporter into a competitive and integrated energy producer.

With $100 billion in downstream investment needs through 2050, the stakes are high. Beyond economics, refining expansion has implications for job creation, industrialisation, trade balances, and national security.

“The time to bet on Africa’s downstream sector is now,” OPEC analysts noted, emphasising that seizing this opportunity will determine whether Africa can close its fuel import gap, capture higher value, and build a resilient energy future.