A Male-Led Jobs Recovery Masks Afghanistan’s Deep Labour Crisis

Afghanistan’s employment has climbed to nearly 8.5 million in 2026, but a new International Labour Organization brief shows that the recovery is increasingly unequal: job growth has been concentrated entirely among men while women remain largely excluded from economic activity. With population growth outpacing employment, returnees adding pressure and external price shocks threatening livelihoods, the country’s labour challenge is becoming structural rather than simply cyclical.

Afghanistan has more people working than at the depths of its post-2021 economic disruption, but the apparent recovery masks a widening divide over who is participating in it. According to a new International Labour Organization (ILO) brief, total employment has risen 14 percent from its 2022 low to nearly 8.5 million in 2026, yet all of that employment growth has been concentrated among men.

The ILO estimates male employment in 2026 at around 22 percent above its 2020 level, while female employment remains dramatically lower after falling in 2022 to less than one-third of its 2020 level and recovering only marginally since, making Afghanistan's labour-market story more complicated than a simple rebound in job numbers. Five years after the Taliban takeover in August 2021, the central question is not only whether employment is recovering, but whether the economy can generate enough productive opportunities for a growing population while a large share of women remains outside the labour force.

More Jobs, Yet a Labour Market Falling Behind

The ILO estimates Afghanistan's employment-to-population ratio at 32.5 percent in 2026, more than four percentage points below its 2020 level, which means employment has expanded without keeping pace with population growth. In practical terms, more Afghans may be working than at the 2022 low, but employment is reaching a smaller share of the population than it did before the upheavals that followed 2020.

Absolute employment gains can create the impression of stronger recovery than underlying labour-market conditions justify. If the number of people needing work rises faster than available jobs, pressure on households and communities can persist even while the national employment total improves.

The ILO's emphasis on "productive employment" reflects this challenge. Increasing job numbers alone will not resolve Afghanistan's economic pressures if available work remains insufficient to absorb new entrants, vulnerable workers and people returning from neighbouring countries.

Women's Exclusion Is Reshaping the Entire Employment Picture

The sharp divergence between male and female employment is arguably the defining feature of Afghanistan's labour market five years after the Taliban takeover. According to the ILO brief, Afghanistan is estimated to have the second-lowest female labour-force participation rate in the world. Female employment had already declined modestly in 2021 before falling dramatically in 2022. Although there has been a limited improvement since then, the ILO's estimates indicate that women remain far from regaining their 2020 position in the workforce.

This is not simply a gender statistic sitting alongside the broader labour-market story; it changes the structure of the labour market itself. When employment gains are concentrated among men while women's economic participation collapses, household earning opportunities become more dependent on male employment and the pool of people contributing through formal or productive work narrows substantially.

The ILO has explicitly linked women's economic exclusion to Afghanistan's ability to build a resilient labour market. Tite Habiyakare, Senior Coordinator and Head of the ILO Office for Afghanistan, said the country "cannot build a resilient labour market while such a large share of its population remains excluded from economic activity."

The implications also reach beyond women already seeking employment. The ILO identifies expanded access to productive employment across all segments of the population as essential, putting women alongside returnees, young people and other vulnerable workers at the centre of the employment challenge.

Returning Afghans Are Entering an Already Crowded Jobs Market

Afghanistan is simultaneously trying to absorb large numbers of returnees from Pakistan and Iran. Many are entering communities already dealing with poverty, underemployment and limited livelihood opportunities, increasing the number of people relying on local economies that are struggling to generate sufficient work.

The pressure is particularly significant because it arrives while the employment-to-population ratio remains below its 2020 level. Reintegration therefore cannot be measured simply by whether returnees reach their communities; the larger economic question is whether those communities can provide sustainable livelihoods after they arrive.

The ILO has consequently called for the "productive reintegration" of returnees as part of the broader policy response. This places employment creation, enterprise development and livelihood opportunities at the centre of the reintegration challenge rather than treating population movements as a separate humanitarian issue.

Private businesses and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises could become particularly important in that effort. The ILO is calling for support to private-sector development and labour-intensive activities, signalling that Afghanistan will need job creation capable of reaching more workers rather than relying on employment growth concentrated in a narrow segment of the population.

Young people face the same underlying constraint. As new workers seek livelihoods alongside returnees and existing jobseekers, insufficient employment growth risks intensifying competition for already limited opportunities and increasing pressure on vulnerable households.

External Shocks Could Turn Labour Weakness Into a Cost-of-Living Crisis

Afghanistan's employment problems are not developing in isolation from regional economic pressures. The ILO estimates that more than 70 percent of Afghan workers are employed in activities with at least medium exposure to risks linked to the Middle East crisis, including rising energy costs and inflationary pressure.

The exposure creates a second vulnerability beyond job availability. Even workers who remain employed can face declining purchasing power when energy, transport or other costs rise, meaning a deterioration in living standards does not necessarily require a fall in employment.

For households already affected by poverty or underemployment, the combination can be particularly difficult. Limited opportunities for additional work reduce the ability to compensate for higher prices, while women's restricted participation can further narrow the number of potential earners within households.

The ILO is therefore calling for protection of vulnerable households from rising living costs alongside measures to expand productive employment. Its recommendations also include support for private-sector development, labour-intensive sectors and small businesses, as well as measures to improve the economic reintegration of returnees.

Better labour-market data will be another crucial part of understanding whether those interventions work. The ILO has called for renewed investment in regular and representative labour-force data collection, which would provide a clearer picture of employment participation, gender gaps and the pressures facing different groups of workers.

Afghanistan's next labour-market test will be broader than whether the total number of jobs rises again. What matters is whether the employment-to-population ratio begins recovering, whether women regain meaningful access to economic activity, and whether returnees and young people can enter productive employment rather than simply adding to an already constrained labour supply.