Middle Corridor Could Create 2 Million Jobs and Transform Trade in Nine Nations

The report identifies four priorities for improving corridor operations, starting with a single digital system that replaces fragmented paperwork with one entry point for transport, transit and trade data.

A trade route connecting East Asia with Europe could bring millions of people closer to better jobs and bigger markets, with a new World Bank Group report estimating that strategic infrastructure investment could create 2 million additional jobs and boost GDP by 3.3% by 2040. The Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, commonly called the Middle Corridor, offers countries across Central Asia and the South Caucasus an opportunity to turn the movement of goods into investment, stronger businesses and greater economic security.

The report, "Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics Along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor," finds that infrastructure improvements could more than triple trade volumes along the route and halve travel times. Pairing those investments with reforms that make trade and transport more efficient could quadruple corridor volumes and cut travel times by two-thirds by 2040, giving businesses a faster and more dependable connection to customers.

A Trade Route With Stakes for Nearly 200 Million People

The opportunities reach across Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Türkiye, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which together have nearly 200 million residents. Removing transport bottlenecks, improving supply chain reliability and widening market access could help businesses reach buyers more easily, lower logistics costs and raise productivity, creating benefits that extend beyond the companies carrying freight.

Many of these countries produce energy, critical minerals, raw materials and food, making dependable transport particularly valuable when disrupted supply chains or floods, droughts and other weather shocks interrupt trade. Growing regional commerce, especially among developing economies, strengthens the case for investment in a route that could reduce exposure to external shocks and channel transit demand into local business growth. World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Antonella Bassani described its potential as a regional platform for economic diversification, poverty reduction, private investment and industrial development.

Billions Needed to Connect Ports, Railways and Local Businesses

More than $25 billion in physical infrastructure investment will be needed through 2040, particularly for rail networks, maritime ports and feeder roads, according to the report. Many critical projects are already underway or at advanced stages of preparation, giving corridor countries a foundation for improvements that could make freight journeys quicker and more reliable.

An estimated $30 billion in additional "enabling" investments would connect the main route to local economies and help the network function smoothly, covering connecting roads and railways, logistics hubs, inland terminals, locomotives, railcars, cargo-handling equipment and digital systems. The economic returns depend on efficient services and stronger institutions as much as construction, because businesses need predictable deliveries and manageable costs to make investment decisions.

Simpler Borders and Better Coordination Could Deliver Bigger Gains

The report identifies four priorities for improving corridor operations, starting with a single digital system that replaces fragmented paperwork with one entry point for transport, transit and trade data. It recommends empowering or creating an integrated, commercially focused joint-venture operator to connect containerized rail freight and trans-Caspian shipping from end to end, alongside stronger corridor-wide coordination to track performance, address bottlenecks and support joint decisions. Modernizing governance, financial sustainability and regulation would help state-owned rail, port and shipping companies operate more commercially.

Governments, transport operators and private businesses would need to work together to reduce border delays, simplify documentation, coordinate hubs and provide dependable services. Charles Cormier, the World Bank's regional infrastructure director for Europe and Central Asia, linked the corridor's success to practical improvements that make freight faster, more predictable and easier to manage across borders, helping businesses compete and giving communities along the route a greater share of its economic benefits.