Rouble weakens on dwindling tax support, political risk

Capital controls have helped insulate the rouble against geopolitics to a certain extent in the 16 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, but Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow reverberated through markets and left questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power. Market players are likely to remain cautious, analysts have said, while today's passing of a month-end tax period that typically sees exporters convert foreign currency revenues to meet local liabilities will dent the rouble's support.

The Russian rouble weakened towards 86 against the dollar on Wednesday, losing support from month-end tax payments and with investors keenly watching for the consequences of an aborted weekend mutiny by heavily armed mercenaries. By 0920 GMT, the rouble was 0.8% weaker against the dollar at 85.71. On Monday it had slumped to its weakest point since late March 2022.

The rouble lost 0.9% to trade at 94.03 versus the euro and was 0.1% weaker against the yuan at 11.80 . Capital controls have helped insulate the rouble against geopolitics to a certain extent in the 16 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, but Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow reverberated through markets and left questions about President Vladimir Putin's grip on power.

Market players are likely to remain cautious, analysts have said, while today's passing of a month-end tax period that typically sees exporters convert foreign currency revenues to meet local liabilities will dent the rouble's support. As the peak of the tax period passes, the rouble will begin to fall in price, said Alor Broker in a note, considering 89-90 roubles per dollar as a target range.

"Last weekend's events, we are sure, were unexpected for many investors and rekindled the question of whether the current risk premium for investing in Russian assets is acceptable," said Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko-Invest. Polevoy said his forecast of the rouble strengthening to around 74-76 against the dollar before ending the year near 80, now looked less likely.

Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was up 0.9% at $72.87 a barrel. Russian stock indexes were lower.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was down 1% to 1,018.2 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.2% lower at 2,770.7 points. Russia's finance ministry plans to hold one OFZ treasury bond auction on Wednesday.

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