Fertilizer Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Global Shocks Are Forcing Farmers to Make Painful Choices

This article explores the significant impact of global crises on smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on the skyrocketing prices of inorganic fertilizers. The piece delves into how these farmers are coping with price shocks, their reduced access to essential agricultural inputs, and the resulting threats to their livelihoods. The article is based on findings from the World Bank report titled "Fertilizer Price Shocks in Smallholder Agriculture: Cross-Country Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa."

A Growing Crisis in the Fields

In recent years, the agricultural landscape in Sub-Saharan Africa has been under siege, not by pests or droughts, but by a crisis of affordability and access. Since 2020, a series of global upheavals—including the COVID-19 pandemic, regional conflicts, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine—have sent ripples through the global economy. One of the most acute effects has been the dramatic rise in the price of inorganic fertilizers, a critical input for smallholder farmers who make up the backbone of the region's agriculture.

A new report from the World Bank, titled "Fertilizer Price Shocks in Smallholder Agriculture: Cross-Country Evidence from High-Frequency Phone Surveys in Sub-Saharan Africa," sheds light on the extent of this crisis. The findings reveal a troubling reality: as fertilizer prices soar, many farmers are being forced to adopt strategies that, while necessary for survival, could undermine their productivity and push them further into poverty.

The Price of Fertility

Inorganic fertilizers are a key component of modern agriculture, especially in regions where soil fertility is often low. For smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa, these fertilizers can mean the difference between a healthy harvest and a failed one. However, since 2020, the cost of these essential inputs has skyrocketed, driven in part by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has disrupted global supply chains and sent prices soaring.

According to the World Bank report, the price increases have been most pronounced in countries that are heavily reliant on imports. For instance, in Ethiopia, the average price of fertilizer jumped by nearly 33% between 2023 and 2024. In Uganda, prices rose by a staggering 41% in just a few months. These sharp increases are not just numbers on a page; they represent a growing burden on farmers who were already operating on razor-thin margins.

Coping Strategies and Their Consequences

Faced with these rising costs, smallholder farmers have had to make difficult decisions. The report highlights several coping mechanisms that farmers are employing, none of which come without significant trade-offs. Some farmers have reduced the amount of fertilizer they apply to their crops, either by covering less land or using lower quantities per hectare. While this allows them to stretch their limited supplies, it also reduces crop yields, threatening food security in a region already prone to shortages.

Others have resorted to more drastic measures, such as selling off assets or borrowing money to afford the necessary inputs. These strategies might provide temporary relief, but they also increase farmers' vulnerability to future crises. Selling assets can deplete the resources that farmers rely on to sustain their livelihoods while borrowing money can lead to debt cycles that are difficult to escape.

In countries like Burkina Faso and Malawi, where the report found the highest levels of fertilizer shortfalls, the situation is particularly dire. Over 45% of farmers in these countries reported being unable to access the fertilizer they needed. As a result, many have had to abandon parts of their land or switch to less fertilizer-dependent crops, further diminishing their productivity.

The Call for Policy Support

The implications of these findings are clear: without significant intervention, the fertilizer crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa could have long-lasting impacts on agricultural productivity and food security. The World Bank report calls for urgent policy measures to support smallholder farmers in building resilience against such shocks.

While input subsidies might seem like an immediate solution, the report cautions that they may not be sustainable in the long run. Instead, it advocates for broader strategies that enhance farmers' access to credit, improve market infrastructure, and promote the use of organic fertilizers as a supplement to inorganic ones.

As the world continues to grapple with the fallout from multiple global crises, the plight of smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of our global systems. The challenges they face are not just their own; they are a reflection of broader vulnerabilities that could if left unaddressed, have ripple effects far beyond the fields of Africa.