Canada fears it could be 'really in trouble' as COVID cases set to soar

Even if current restrictions on gatherings are maintained, new daily cases will jump to over 20,000 by the end of December. Only if people reduce their personal contacts can the situation be kept stable and even then, the experience of harder-hit European nations strongly suggests more curbs will be needed, she said.

New daily cases of COVID-19 in Canada could soar to 60,000 by the end of the year, up from less than 5,000 now, threatening to overwhelm an already creaking healthcare system, a top medical official said on Friday. Several provinces are reimposing restrictions on movement and businesses as a second wave rips across the country. Federal and provincial politicians complain people are being more careless about taking precautions.

"Absolutely do not go above what we have now (in terms of daily cases) otherwise we are really in trouble," chief public health officer Theresa Tam told a briefing to unveil the latest modeling forecasts. Tam said the worst case scenario, a spike to 60,000 daily cases, would occur if people started to increase their personal contacts. Even if current restrictions on gatherings are maintained, new daily cases will jump to over 20,000 by the end of December.

Only if people reduce their personal contacts can the situation be kept stable and even then, the experience of harder-hit European nations strongly suggests more curbs will be needed, she said. Canada is reporting an increasing number of cases in seniors' residences and hospitalizations are spiking.

"The healthcare systems in certain jurisdictions, certain cities, are already feeling the pressure. So if that's happening now, you can imagine that these exhausted health care workers are not going to be able to cope (with a surge)," said Tam. Officials predict that by Nov. 30 the total death toll could be between 11,870 and 12,120, with the total cases between 366,500 and 378,600. Canada has recorded a total of 315,751 cases and 11,265 deaths so far.

"This wave is undeniably harder. We are all tired, we are all lonely, and we all want our lives back, but we can't give up now," said Health Minister Patty Hajdu.

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