Brazil coffee's early flowering could herald an early crop

Coffee plants in Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter, are flowering early, leading analysts to predict the ‌2027 crop could ripen early and boost global supplies.

The first major flowering, a phase in the plants' cycle that will define fruit load, has happened a month earlier than typical, following unusually high rainfall, which meteorologists have linked to El Nino. They have also said the ‌current El Nino, a weather phenomenon that occurs naturally, when weakening trade winds cause warmer ocean waters to build up ‌in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is exceptionally strong.

The early flowering after frequent rains over Brazil's winter — a period that is usually dry — is a positive indication for the future crop of arabica, which could be ready around May next year. Favourable weather is still needed to ensure the flowers lead to fruits, however, ⁠and there ​is a risk of quality ⁠problems or that the very strong El Nino leads to severe heat.

"In general, yes, we could expect the anticipation of the harvest (next year)," said Lucas ⁠Ubiali, a coffee agronomist that advises farms. He said that more flowering could happen in the coming months.

That can raise the chances fruits mature at ​different times, creating uneven quality, although the analysts mostly downplayed that problem. "We did not have the traditional dry period ⁠this year, which helps to make flowering and fruit development more uniform," said Adriano Rabelo, a technical coordinator at Minasul coffee co-op.

A bigger risk of otherwise beneficial higher ⁠moisture ​is increased bacterial and fungal disease, said Jonas Ferraresso, an agronomist that provides technical support for farms in Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais states. "Dry periods help to control diseases. If it continues humid, they tend to remain present in the fields ⁠into the next cycle," he said.

Brazil produced a record crop in 2026, so 2027 will be an off-year in the biennial ⁠production cycle for arabica coffee. Trees ⁠get stressed after a big crop, and are less productive in the following year. Coffee prices have fallen recently, hitting a more than two-month low of $2.75 per pound on Monday, partly due ‌to supplies from Brazil.