France lifts wine output forecast despite historically weak crop

France raised this year's wine production ​forecast on Friday after yields proved ​better than expected in several major ‌regions, ​but the harvest remained on course to be among the worst on record.

In its latest estimate, the farm ministry forecast output ‌of 36.7 million hectolitres, up from 34.9 million hectolitres estimated in October. That would now put production above last year's harvest, which was the poorest this century, but 10% below the 2021-2025 average, it said ‌in a monthly report.

The upward revision was mainly due to higher-than-expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon and ‌Charentes, which together account for about half of national output, as well as in Champagne and the South-East. France is the world's second-largest wine producer after Italy.

Agreste, the ministry's statistics service, said the 2026 crop had suffered from a ⁠fall in ​vineyard area, due ⁠to a vineyard reduction plan, while summer heat and drought hurt yields, especially in northern wine regions. Despite the rise in ⁠this month's forecast, production in Champagne was still expected to fall 38% from 2025 after frost, hail, drought ​and summer heatwaves.

The number of Champagne bottles eventually put on the market each year ⁠is decided by the industry lobby, taking into account the output in the region and other parameters such as ⁠world demand. Burgundy-Beaujolais ​output was forecast to fall 22% from last year with Loire production down 7%.

In contrast, Languedoc-Roussillon output was seen rising 25% from last year's very weak harvest after late-summer ⁠rains limited drought damage. Last month the farm ministry had expected a rise of 2% in the ⁠region. Bordeaux production was forecast ⁠up 10% from 2025 but 11% below the five-year average, partly due to vineyard removals.

A hectolitre is 100 litres, equivalent to about 133 ‌standard wine bottles.