ANALYSIS-Can the US Democrats' 'Blue Wave' election sweep buoy Ukraine?

One potential beneficiary of the US Democratic ​Party's sweeping wins in congressional elections sits thousands of miles away: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, whose government ‌has fought Russia's ​invasion with dwindling US support since January 2025. Democratic aides in the Senate and House of Representatives told Reuters that beefing up assistance for Ukraine will be a top priority after the new Congress — with large Democratic majorities — is seated in January.

Whether they can do so in the face of resistance from President Donald Trump, who still has a veto and a history of bypassing Congress, is an open question. Congress has not passed significant Ukraine aid legislation since Trump ‌began his second term in January 2025 and Republicans took control of both chambers in the legislature. And his administration has slowed and even at times blocked aid that passed before he took office.

Democrats have said they will change that. "The Trump administration has been coy in committing to these life-saving funds in Ukraine and the sooner that changes the better... If he is going to continue on this path, we've got to find other ways to make him follow the law and the Constitution," Democratic Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, a founder of the Senate Ukraine caucus, told Reuters in an interview.

Asked about the president's plans for further Ukraine aid, a White House ‌official said in an emailed statement that Trump wants the war settled "so that the senseless killing ends." The official added: "The President and his team remain committed to continuing to play a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, and he remains optimistic that we'll ultimately get a peace ‌deal done." US presidents have extensive control over foreign policy and Trump has frequently disregarded Congress by governing via executive orders or ordering actions, such as the attacks that started the US-Israeli war with Iran, without seeking lawmakers' approval.

OPPOSITION POWER While that is not expected to change, opposition Democrats can use their congressional majorities to exert pressure.

The House and Senate can include provisions providing aid to Kyiv or imposing tougher sanctions on Russia in broader bills such as the National Defense Authorization Act setting Pentagon policy for the year, or budget measures seen as "must-pass" legislation. They can also block Trump's nominations, call hearings, launch investigations and use Congress's constitutional power over spending to make life more difficult for administration officials, such as by trimming their travel budgets.

Zelenskiy said on Wednesday he hoped the Democrats' gains would generate more ⁠help for his country ​in its war with Russia. "I am also grateful to the Republicans, but the ⁠Democrats speak very clearly about supporting Ukraine and providing assistance to Ukraine," Zelenskiy told Germany's ZDF television. David Arakhamia, a Ukrainian lawmaker and member of Kyiv's peace negotiating team, told reporters he expected the Democratic sweep to "at least double" the chances for increased US military and financial support, but that wouldn't happen until next year.

"Before that we have the hardest winter ever," he said, noting that the ⁠dire situation was the reason that Ukraine was so determined to see a successful outcome of next week's US-led trilateral talks with Russia in Abu Dhabi. Price Floyd, a former US official and senior adviser with Argyll Strategy, a London-based strategic communications firm, warned against being overly optimistic, given Trump's focus on his legacy, with just two more years in office. "I just ​don’t think Trump cares what Congress says or does," he said.

Trump has recently made several moves favorable to Russia, including a deal to import Russian diesel, which angered Republicans in Congress as well as opposition Democrats. Weeks after signing into law a bill imposing sanctions on Russia that passed ⁠Congress with overwhelming bipartisan support, he waived those sanctions. Congressional aides said Democrats on national security committees had already sent letters to companies and other entities involved in business with Russia to preserve documents in case of investigations.

OVERCOMING 'MR VETO' Trump vowed to become "Mr Veto" if Democrats took control of Congress and passed legislation he does not support. But the extent of the Democrats' victories — they may end up with 56 of the ⁠100 ​Senate seats and close to 260 of the 435 in the House, where dozens of races are still undecided — makes it easier, with some Republican votes, to amass the two-thirds majorities needed to override vetoes.

Dozens of Republicans have joined Democrats in the past to support aid for Ukraine, calling its fight against Russia a broader battle for the West. Charles Lichfield, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, said the extent of the Democratic victories meant it wouldn't take as many Republicans to break with Trump to create veto-proof majorities.

The Abu Dhabi meeting will be the first round of trilateral talks in several months. If the ⁠Democrats' return to power in Congress leads to more help for Ukraine, it could put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict. Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at the London-based Chatham House think tank, said a Democratic majority could constrain Trump's push for rapprochement with Russia.

"As we ⁠know it, it's not popular, neither among the American public, nor among the senior Republicans," ⁠she said. Denys Sienik, Ukraine's top diplomat in the US, said the country's priorities remained unchanged. "We hope to keep strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in both chambers of the US Congress, and we welcome any initiative that can help save more lives in Ukraine," Sienik said.

Ukraine may not see changed US policy soon — the new Congress doesn't take over until January. In the meantime, the situation in Ukraine grows more dire daily, with increasing Russian attacks on Kyiv and Ukrainian energy infrastructure and ‌a brutal winter looming, Lichfield said.

"Ukraine will get through ‌this winter because they defy all expectations, but it's really bad," he said.