Eskom Promises for Load Shedding-Free Winter as Outages Drop by 3.1GW

The outlook was presented during a media briefing in Johannesburg by Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane, alongside Minister of Electricity and Energy, Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.

Eskom, South Africa’s state-owned power utility, has projected a largely load shedding-free winter for the 2024/2025 financial year, driven by a significant improvement in operational performance, reduced unplanned outages, and the expected return of key generation units. The outlook was presented during a media briefing in Johannesburg by Eskom Group Chief Executive Dan Marokane, alongside Minister of Electricity and Energy, Dr. Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.

Improved Outlook Based on Operational Gains

Eskom’s optimistic winter forecast hinges on maintaining unplanned outages below 13 gigawatts (GW). Should these outages rise to 15GW, the utility still anticipates no more than 21 days of Stage 2 load shedding across the 153-day winter season. This is a dramatic improvement compared to the previous year’s worst-case projection of up to Stage 5 load shedding.

The CEO attributed the positive shift to a 3.1GW reduction in average unplanned outages compared to the previous year. Last winter, Eskom managed to avoid any load shedding altogether, maintaining an average of 12.3GW in unplanned outages—well below the previously projected 14GW.

“The forecast range has now been adjusted downwards from 14–17GW to a more favorable 13–15GW,” Marokane noted. “This year’s winter outlook is underpinned by a noticeable improvement in operational efficiency, better unit availability, and smarter utilisation of available capacity.”

Diesel Use Significantly Reduced, Saving Billions

A noteworthy contributor to this improved performance has been Eskom’s reduced dependence on expensive diesel-powered open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). According to Marokane, OCGT usage in FY2025 was approximately 50% lower than in the previous two financial years, resulting in savings of around R16 billion. Diesel consumption dropped by 45%, even as Eskom recorded its highest power output in the past three years.

In FY2025, Eskom delivered electricity 96% of the time—an extraordinary recovery from the 9.9% power delivery rate of the previous financial year.

Setbacks and Recent Load Shedding Addressed

Despite the gains, the utility acknowledged recent setbacks in maintaining operational excellence, citing load shedding incidents between January and April 2025. Marokane assured the public that corrective measures are in place.

“We’ve initiated a targeted plan to restore operational discipline and fast-track recovery efforts. This includes root cause analysis and accountability systems to prevent a recurrence of recent disruptions,” he said.

Eskom's Generation Executive, Bheki Nxumalo, emphasized the importance of data-driven approaches to address delays in unit returns from planned outages. These delays, he said, have left the generation fleet vulnerable to unanticipated breakdowns. The utility is leveraging a “high challenge, high support” culture to empower teams and ensure better compliance with schedules.

Major Units Returning to Service

Minister Ramokgopa announced a series of strategic developments set to boost the national grid during the peak winter months. Koeberg Unit 1 has received long-term operational approval from regulators, extending its life by 20 years.

In addition:

• Kusile Units 2 and 3 have been successfully restored to operation.

• Kusile Unit 1 is scheduled to return to service by the end of May 2025.

• Kusile Unit 6 has been synchronised to the grid, though it remains short of full commercial operation due to ongoing technical calibrations.

• Medupi Unit 4, which has been out of commission for nearly four years, is also scheduled for reactivation during the middle of winter, potentially adding 800 megawatts to the grid.

“These recoveries are critical to ensuring we have adequate capacity through the coldest months. They also represent long-term investments in grid reliability,” Ramokgopa said.

Load Reduction Still a Necessary Tool

While load shedding may be minimized, load reduction measures will remain in place. Ramokgopa highlighted the continued threat posed by illegal connections and infrastructure overloading, which create safety hazards and put additional pressure on the grid.

“Load reduction helps protect not only the infrastructure but the lives of people living near overloaded systems,” the minister said.

Historical Improvement in Load Shedding Days

From April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025, Eskom implemented load shedding on just 13 days—a dramatic decline from 329 days and 208 days in the two previous years. This milestone illustrates the effectiveness of Eskom’s evolving generation recovery plan and its focus on reliability, planning, and disciplined maintenance.

The Road Ahead

Despite the recent positive trends, Eskom's leadership remains cautious. Operational reliability remains a delicate balancing act, and ensuring long-term grid stability will require continued maintenance diligence, technological upgrades, and a disciplined response to any emergent challenges.

The leadership team reiterated their commitment to transparent communication with the public and emphasized that every effort is being made to limit disruptions while enhancing long-term energy sustainability in South Africa.