Global Aid Cuts Risk Catastrophic Consequences by 2030

An analysis warns that reducing aid from high-income countries could lead to 22.6 million preventable deaths in low and middle-income countries by 2030. Notably, 5.4 million would be children under five. With major donors planning cuts, this could reverse decades of progress in global health.

A recent analysis published in The Lancet Global Health journal presents a grim outlook on the impact of aid cuts from high-income countries. The study projects that these reductions could lead to up to 22.6 million preventable deaths in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) by 2030, affecting 5.4 million children under the age of five.

Historically, contributions from nations like the US, Germany, France, Japan, and the UK have made up about 70% of the total official development assistance, exceeding USD 250 billion in 2023. However, except for Japan, these major donors are set to decrease their funding starting 2024, marking a significant decline unseen in nearly three decades.

The analysis details that adequate funding correlates with substantial drops in mortality rates, including significant reductions in deaths from major communicable diseases. The authors emphasize that abrupt funding cuts could not only halt progress but also induce a global crisis with preventable deaths possibly exceeding those of the COVID-19 pandemic.