Nigeria: "We expect GDP growth to rebound by 1.7% to 2.0%," Nigeria Outlook 2021

"In 2021, we expect GDP growth to rebound by 1.7% to 2.0%, buoyed by increased economic activity and some improvements in the oil market. Although the reopening of the borders in Q4 2020 should ease pressures on food prices, other structural factors such as FX market illiquidity, potential increases in petrol price, etc. may keep general prices elevated."

From 1.7% and 2.0%, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Nigeria is expected to grow, according to a report released by United Capital.

Expected to rise with improving oil market and increased economic activities, the report was disclosed in the "Nigeria Outlook 2021 – A shot at recovery".

The report reads in part, "in 2021, we expect GDP growth to rebound by 1.7% to 2.0%, buoyed by increased economic activity and some improvements in the oil market. Although the reopening of the borders in Q4 2020 should ease pressures on food prices, other structural factors such as FX market illiquidity, potential increases in petrol price, etc. may keep general prices elevated. As a result, we expect the headline inflation rate to peak at around 16.0% before pulling back, if no further policy adjustment is made. Again, the high base effect of the headline inflation spike in Q3 and Q4 2020 should moderate further increases in price levels. In response to rising inflation and in a bid to attract FPI inflows to the market, we imagine that the CBN would begin to tighten its monetary policy stance at some point in Q2-Q3 2021".

"On the exchange rate, we expect a potential convergence of rates when the CBN begins full intervention at the I&E window. As such, we anticipate that the parallel market will appreciate from N470/$ towards the NAFEX rate which has now been adjusted to N410/$. In 2021, the direction of the monetary policy would continue to drive the sentiments for stocks as regards the yield environment. Accordingly, our prognosis for the Nigerian stock market in 2021 is that domestic interest, fuelled by dividend expectations, is likely to sustain the market rally in Q1-2021. However, in the absence of foreign demand, we see a short-term bear market from Q2 to Q3-2021", it added.