Building Roads, Reducing Violence? The Role of Infrastructure in the DRC’s Conflict

The study Road Investment and Violence in DRC: Perishable Peace Dividends finds that road rehabilitation temporarily reduces violence in the DRC by 5-10%, but conflict resurges as roads deteriorate due to lack of maintenance. Sustainable infrastructure upkeep is crucial for lasting stability in conflict-prone regions.

The World Bank’s Policy Research Working Paper Road Investment and Violence in DRC: Perishable Peace Dividends examines the impact of road infrastructure rehabilitation on conflict dynamics in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Authored by Mathilde Lebrand, Hannes Mueller, Peer Schouten, and Jevgenijs Steinbuks, the research is a collaboration between The World Bank, the Barcelona School of Economics, and the Danish Institute for International Studies. The study employs a combination of machine learning analysis and econometric methods to assess how road investments influence stability in one of the world’s most conflict-prone regions. With billions of dollars poured into transport infrastructure projects under international stabilization and reconstruction efforts, the study aims to determine whether these investments genuinely contribute to reducing violence and, if so, how long such effects last.

The DRC, a vast country with a road network that is often more theoretical than functional, has been subjected to decades of conflict, making it a prime case for analyzing the relationship between infrastructure and stability. Since its independence in 1960, the country has witnessed the collapse of its once-expansive colonial-era road system, followed by waves of external funding to rehabilitate key routes. Roads have historically played a dual role in the region, used both to consolidate state control and as strategic assets for armed groups. The research explores whether investments in road rehabilitation have had a tangible impact on reducing violence and whether such effects endure over time. Using a newly compiled dataset of 192 inter-city road projects from 2003 onwards, the study tracks changes in conflict incidence before, during, and after road construction.

A Temporary Peace Dividend

One of the study’s key findings is that road rehabilitation does lead to a reduction in violence, with incidents dropping by approximately 5-10 percentage points following project completion. However, this peace dividend is temporary. By analyzing road quality deterioration through satellite imagery, the researchers find that violence resurges as roads degrade, with conflict levels returning to pre-rehabilitation levels within three years. The study attributes this to the rapid decline in road conditions in the absence of systematic maintenance, estimating that 60% of rehabilitated roads deteriorate within this period. This demonstrates that while infrastructure projects can temporarily stabilize regions, their long-term impact depends on sustained upkeep.

The research delves into the theoretical debate surrounding the role of infrastructure in conflict-affected areas. Some perspectives argue that better road networks increase state reach, improving security and economic integration while reducing the ability of rebel groups to operate in remote areas. Others suggest that roads can exacerbate conflict by facilitating the movement of armed groups, enabling looting, and intensifying struggles over resource control. The study finds that while road construction initially decreases violence, its long-term effect is neutralized by road deterioration. This suggests that the presence of functional infrastructure matters more than its mere existence.

Mining and Conflict: A Complicated Relationship

Mining and resource extraction add another layer of complexity to the relationship between roads and conflict. The study finds that road projects frequently intersect with mining regions, a legacy of both colonial infrastructure planning and contemporary economic activities. In areas with artisanal gold mining, improved roads tend to increase violence, likely due to greater competition among armed groups over resource control. Conversely, in regions dominated by large-scale industrial mining, particularly for cobalt, road investments appear to have a stabilizing effect, possibly due to stronger government oversight and corporate security measures. These findings highlight the importance of differentiating between types of economic activities when assessing the impact of infrastructure on conflict dynamics.

Regression analyses further support these conclusions, showing that the most significant reductions in violence occur in cases of violence against civilians and battles. However, the study finds no meaningful impact on state and non-state armed actor conflicts, suggesting that roads primarily influence violence affecting the general population rather than larger-scale military engagements. Additionally, the effect of roads on conflict varies by terrain. In rugged, inaccessible areas, road rehabilitation has a stronger conflict-reducing impact, reinforcing the argument that better infrastructure enhances state presence and control.

The Importance of Maintenance and Policy Considerations

The study raises critical policy implications. While road investments do provide a temporary peace dividend, their impact is highly perishable. The rapid deterioration of roads in the DRC underscores the need for ongoing maintenance efforts to sustain any stability gains. The findings suggest that policymakers and international donors should prioritize road durability, focusing on long-term infrastructure resilience rather than short-term reconstruction. Without consistent investment in maintenance, the initial benefits of road rehabilitation quickly fade, allowing violence to return.

The research also questions the assumption that infrastructure projects alone can drive long-term stabilization. It suggests that while roads can improve access to markets, facilitate governance, and reduce logistical costs for peacekeeping and humanitarian operations, they are not a standalone solution for conflict resolution. Instead, they must be integrated into broader strategies that include governance reforms, economic development initiatives, and conflict mediation efforts.

A New Approach to Monitoring Infrastructure

The study’s use of satellite-based road quality assessments introduces an innovative methodology for monitoring infrastructure degradation in conflict zones. By leveraging remote sensing and machine learning, the researchers provide a more dynamic understanding of how road conditions evolve and their correlation with conflict trends. This approach offers a valuable tool for policymakers and development agencies, allowing for more precise assessments of infrastructure effectiveness in fragile states.

The study provides a nuanced perspective on the role of infrastructure in conflict settings. It confirms that road rehabilitation can temporarily reduce violence but highlights the transient nature of these effects in the absence of maintenance. By incorporating novel data sources and rigorous empirical methods, the study contributes to a growing body of research on infrastructure and stability, offering crucial insights for those working to rebuild conflict-affected regions. The findings underscore the need for sustained commitment to infrastructure upkeep if road investments are to have a lasting impact on peace and development.