Conflict-Driven Migration: Why Skilled Workers Accept Jobs Below Their Qualifications

The study by the World Bank’s Social Protection and Labor Global Department reveals that conflict exposure in Myanmar increases high-skilled migrants’ willingness to accept lower-skilled jobs abroad, prioritizing safety over job suitability. This shift has major implications for migration policies, labor market integration, and conflict-driven economic displacement.

The World Bank's Social Protection and Labor Global Department, in collaboration with researchers Yashodhan Ghorpade and Muhammad Saad Imtiaz, has conducted an in-depth study on the impact of violent conflict on migration decisions, specifically focusing on occupational downgrading among high-skilled youth in Myanmar. Their Policy Research Working Paper presents compelling evidence that individuals exposed to conflict are significantly more likely to accept lower-skilled jobs abroad, even at reduced wages. Unlike traditional economic migration, where individuals seek better job opportunities and higher salaries, conflict-driven migration prioritizes security over career advancement. This study employs an innovative survey-based experimental approach, revealing how conflict influences labor market decisions and reshapes migration patterns. The findings have profound implications for global migration policies, labor market integration, and strategies to mitigate conflict-induced economic displacement.

When Job Fit No Longer Matters: The Trade-Off Between Safety and Skills

The study builds on the existing literature on migration and labor market mismatches but introduces a new perspective—how conflict exposure alters employment choices. Migrants often experience occupational downgrading due to factors like legal barriers, language difficulties, and skill transferability issues. However, this research highlights a previously underexplored driver: the role of security concerns in migration decisions. In stable environments, job suitability is a key factor, and migrants demand a higher wage premium to accept lower-skilled work. However, as conflict intensifies, individuals become more willing to take any available job abroad, even one beneath their qualifications, for the sake of security.

To test this hypothesis, the researchers designed a large-scale survey of 2,400 high-skilled young professionals in Myanmar, conducted between January and April 2024. The respondents, aged 20 to 45 and holding at least a bachelor's degree, were asked about their willingness to migrate for two types of hypothetical jobs abroad—one that matched their current occupation and another significantly lower-skilled position as a supermarket cashier. By analyzing the additional wage premium respondents demanded to accept the lower-skilled job, the researchers measured their compensating wage differential (CWD)—a key indicator of occupational downgrading.

How Conflict Shapes Migration Decisions

The results reveal a striking trend: while conflict exposure does not significantly affect the wage premium required for jobs that match a person's skills, it dramatically lowers the wage premium for lower-skilled jobs. Respondents typically demand a 20-percentage-point higher wage premium for accepting a job below their qualifications. However, in high-conflict areas, this premium shrinks significantly, signaling a greater willingness to compromise on job suitability. The findings suggest that, as security concerns escalate, individuals begin to prioritize physical safety over employment preferences.

The study also finds that the impact of conflict is not uniform—it disproportionately affects vulnerable groups. Women, ethnic and linguistic minorities, those with weaker labor market networks, individuals with limited English proficiency, and workers who have recently faced income reductions are the most likely to accept occupational downgrading. These groups already experience labor market disadvantages, and conflict exposure further exacerbates their economic vulnerabilities.

Interestingly, the research also distinguishes between economic and conflict-driven migration. While economic migrants move to maximize income and career prospects, conflict-driven migrants are primarily motivated by safety concerns. This shift in migration incentives makes individuals more susceptible to labor exploitation and long-term underemployment.

The Role of Insecurity: Territorial Control and Military Conscription

To further examine the role of insecurity, the study looks at how different levels of territorial control influence migration decisions. The findings show that individuals from areas under active territorial contestation—where neither the government nor resistance forces maintain stable control are the most willing to accept lower-skilled jobs abroad. The uncertainty and instability in these regions heighten the urgency to flee, making job suitability a lesser concern.

The research also takes advantage of an unexpected real-world event: the sudden enactment of Myanmar's military conscription law in February 2024. The law mandated military service for men aged 18 to 45 and unmarried women aged 18 to 35, significantly increasing perceived insecurity. Survey respondents who were eligible for conscription and interviewed after the announcement were far more likely to accept occupational downgrading. This exogenous shock reinforces the idea that conflict and insecurity directly influence migration decisions, pushing individuals to compromise on job quality in favor of safety.

Policy Implications: Rethinking Migration Support and Conflict Mitigation

The study's findings have major policy implications. First, they highlight the need for improved labor market integration for conflict-driven migrants. Host countries must develop policies to ensure that high-skilled individuals can access jobs that match their qualifications. This includes measures such as credential recognition, language training, and employment support services to prevent long-term underemployment.

Second, the research underscores the risk of labor exploitation for conflict-driven migrants. Desperation forces them to accept poor employment conditions, making them vulnerable to unfair wages and substandard working environments. Governments and international organizations should implement protective measures, such as ethical recruitment practices and stronger labor rights for migrants, to prevent exploitation.

Third, the study highlights how conflict accelerates brain drain, as skilled professionals flee deteriorating conditions at home. Policymakers in conflict-affected countries must recognize that instability is not just a humanitarian crisis but an economic challenge that leads to workforce depletion. Addressing security concerns and creating incentives for skilled workers to remain or return home is critical for long-term national development.

Finally, this research offers valuable insights into how migration trends will evolve in response to rising global conflicts. As more individuals are forced to migrate due to violence and instability, host countries and international organizations must prepare for shifting labor market dynamics. Strengthening pre-migration counseling, providing targeted job placement programs, and enhancing access to social support networks will be essential to ensure that migration remains a pathway to opportunity rather than a desperate move for survival.

The study provides a critical understanding of how conflict reshapes migration decisions, particularly for high-skilled workers who might otherwise be expected to thrive in global labor markets. By recognizing the role of security concerns in labor market mismatches, policymakers can design better migration frameworks that balance economic opportunities with human security needs. In a world where conflict continues to drive displacement, these findings underscore the urgency of addressing both migration policies and the root causes of instability to create more sustainable and equitable labor outcomes for displaced populations.