How Smarter Heating Could Transform Norway’s Energy Use and Grid Flexibility

A SINTEF study shows that combining energy-efficient building upgrades with district heating and heat pumps can cut Norway’s electricity demand by up to 26% and peak demand by 35% by 2050. This integrated approach enhances grid flexibility and supports cost-effective decarbonization.

A pioneering study from SINTEF Energy Research and SINTEF Community presents a compelling strategy to cut electricity demand and improve heat supply flexibility in buildings through energy efficiency upgrades and widespread adoption of district heating. Focusing on Norway, a country heavily reliant on direct electric heating. The research reveals the critical importance of transitioning toward waterborne heating systems and smarter energy system integration. As Europe pushes for climate neutrality by 2050 under the EU Green Deal, this study provides timely and relevant insights for nations seeking to decarbonize their building sectors without overwhelming electricity grids.

The Challenge of Electrification in Cold Climates

Heating remains one of Europe’s largest energy consumers, accounting for half of total energy use, and is largely driven by fossil fuels. In Norway, where electricity from hydropower is abundant and cheap, heating is predominantly electric. This has led to buildings consuming 50% of the country’s electricity and driving 60% of peak winter demand. As other sectors like transport and industry also shift toward electrification, the power grid faces increasing stress. The risk is that without parallel improvements in energy efficiency and smarter heating systems, electrification could become counterproductive, leading to higher costs, grid congestion, and missed climate targets.

Scenarios for Smarter Heating: Efficiency Meets Integration

To tackle this issue, the researchers modeled five scenarios representing different combinations of building renovation levels and heating technologies. These ranged from a baseline business-as-usual case to highly ambitious pathways involving passive-house-level efficiency standards, full deployment of waterborne heating, and tailored use of heat pumps and district heating based on urban density.

Using the RE-BUILDS model to simulate the evolution of Norway’s building stock and the Integrate tool for energy system optimization, the study assessed how these scenarios would affect total and peak electricity demand, district heating use, and energy system costs by 2050. The most comprehensive scenario, combining high-efficiency buildings with maximum use of district heating in urban areas and heat pumps in rural zones proved the most effective.

Cutting Peaks and Costs: The Power of Sector Coupling

Results show that the integrated scenario could reduce electricity demand for buildings by 26% and slash peak electricity demand by 35% by 2050 compared to 2020. When benchmarked against a business-as-usual scenario, this equates to a 17% drop in electricity use and an impressive 38% cut in peak load. These reductions are crucial, especially in densely populated areas where grid infrastructure is already strained and costly to expand.

While energy efficiency alone delivers notable savings, cutting total energy use by 8 TWh by 2050, the combined impact of efficiency and system integration is far greater. By shifting from inefficient point-source electric heaters to waterborne systems, buildings can utilize more efficient and flexible technologies. District heating and heat pumps allow buildings to tap into renewable and recycled heat sources, reducing dependency on the power grid, particularly during peak demand in cold months.

District Heating’s Role in a Flexible Future

District heating, which currently supplies only about 10% of Norway’s building heat, emerged as a key enabler of flexibility. When used in combination with thermal energy storage (TES), it allows for significant peak shaving and load shifting. A tenfold increase in TES capacity, modeled in the study, substantially reduced the need for expensive and carbon-intensive bio-oil during peak periods and increased the use of electric boilers during off-peak hours. This not only enhanced energy system resilience but also improved cost efficiency.

Interestingly, the scenario with the greatest reduction in total energy use 19% was one prioritizing energy efficiency and heat pump deployment. However, the largest cuts in electricity demand, both total and peak, came from maximizing district heating in urban areas. This underscores the importance of context-sensitive solutions: cities benefit most from centralized heating infrastructure, while rural regions are better served by individual heat pumps.

Savings and Strategy: A Blueprint for Europe

Beyond energy savings and emissions cuts, the study also demonstrated economic benefits. By 2050, operational energy costs in the most integrated scenario were up to 15% lower than in the baseline case. This challenges the narrative that deep decarbonization necessarily comes with financial sacrifice. Although investment costs for upgrading infrastructure were not included in the current analysis, future research will address these to offer a complete cost-benefit picture.

The implications of this study extend well beyond Norway. Any country with significant reliance on electric heating or facing grid limitations can learn from its approach. The research shows that combining ambitious energy efficiency standards with scalable, renewable-ready heat supply technologies isn’t just technically viable, it’s economically and environmentally strategic.

As the demand for electricity grows in parallel with efforts to decarbonize, managing peak loads and ensuring system flexibility will be key. This study provides a clear roadmap: smart renovation, sector coupling, and heat system transformation offer a pathway to climate goals without sacrificing reliability or affordability. In doing so, it elevates the role of the heating sector from a climate problem to a vital part of the solution.