Asia’s Missing Exports: How Trade Delays and Policy Gaps Are Holding Back Growth

The Asian Development Bank and World Bank study finds that since the 2008 global financial crisis, Asian economies have consistently exported about 6% of GDP less than their potential due to policy frictions, logistics inefficiencies, and slow trade procedures. It shows that even small reductions in export delays could unlock large gains, making trade facilitation one of the most powerful tools for boosting growth in the region.

Produced by the Asian Development Bank with contributions from economists linked to the World Bank, the brief Estimating Missing Exports in Asia investigates a striking gap between what Asian economies actually export and what they should be able to export given their size, resources, and global connections. This gap, called “missing exports,” reflects unrealized trade potential rather than weak demand. The study argues that despite decades of integration into global markets, many Asian economies remain held back by policy frictions, inefficient logistics, and slow trade procedures that quietly but powerfully suppress export performance.

What Are “Missing Exports” and How Are They Measured?

Missing exports are defined as the difference between an economy’s actual exports and its estimated export potential. To calculate this potential, the authors use a structural gravity model, a widely accepted tool in trade economics. The model predicts bilateral trade flows based on factors such as economic size, distance between countries, geography, education levels, natural resources, and trade policies. Using data for 143 economies over the period 1988–2022, the study estimates how much each country should export under normal conditions. When actual exports fall short of this benchmark, the gap represents lost trade and, by extension, lost growth opportunities.

A Turning Point After the Global Financial Crisis

The long-term trend is revealing. From the late 1980s until the global financial crisis of 2008, Asia’s export potential rose rapidly, and actual exports broadly kept pace. By 2007, potential exports exceeded 40% of regional GDP. After the crisis, however, the pattern changed. Export potential stopped rising and stabilized at around 35–40% of GDP, while actual exports declined more sharply and never fully recovered. Since then, Asia has consistently exported about 6% of GDP less than its estimated potential. This persistent gap suggests structural problems rather than temporary shocks, pointing to deep-rooted inefficiencies that have not been resolved in the post-crisis period.

Big Differences Across Regions and Countries

Behind the regional average lie sharp contrasts. Central, South, and West Asia, along with the Caucasus, consistently export far below their potential. South Asia performs the worst, with missing exports exceeding 20% of GDP by 2022. Countries such as Nepal, Lebanon, and Armenia rank among the weakest performers globally, exporting more than 30% of GDP less than expected. In contrast, Southeast Asia and East Asia generally outperform their predicted export levels. Cambodia, Vietnam, and Malaysia stand out as global leaders in export overperformance, while East Asian economies such as Japan and the Republic of Korea also exceed expectations, though by smaller margins. Even so, no region is uniform: Myanmar, for example, combines Southeast Asia’s strengths with one of the region’s largest export gaps.

Time Delays: A Hidden but Powerful Trade Barrier

One of the brief’s most important findings concerns time. Delays in export and import procedures have a large and measurable impact on trade. Each additional day required to complete export formalities reduces exports by roughly 9% to 18%. Import delays also significantly depress trade volumes. While Asia performs relatively well compared with other regions, differences within Asia are stark. Bangladesh clears exports in about one day, while Pakistan takes five. Based on the study’s estimates, if Pakistan reduced its export time to match Bangladesh’s, its exports could increase by between 36% and 76%. These figures highlight how seemingly small administrative delays can translate into massive economic losses.

What Can Governments Do to Unlock Exports?

The policy message is pragmatic rather than ideological. The authors caution against picking winners or relying on narrow industrial subsidies. Instead, they argue for evidence-based policies grounded in export diagnostics. Priority should be given to public goods that benefit many firms at once, such as modern logistics systems, digital customs platforms, testing facilities, and trade information services. Reducing uncertainty and delays at borders is presented as one of the most effective ways to boost exports quickly. The brief also stresses the importance of transparency, competition, and coherence between trade and industrial policies, as well as deeper trade agreements with partners where unrealized export potential is greatest.

Overall, the study shows that Asia’s missing exports are not inevitable. They are the result of fixable frictions that quietly drain growth. Removing them would not only raise exports but also strengthen productivity, resilience, and long-term development across the region.