Ukraine Braces for a Harsh Winter: UNHCR Urges Sustained Support Amid Russian Strikes

Almost 5.2 million refugees from Ukraine remain across Europe, where protection arrangements have helped families rebuild their lives since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

UNHCR is urging the international community to maintain support for people inside Ukraine and refugees abroad as Russian attacks intensify ahead of winter. Strikes on civilian buildings, humanitarian facilities and energy infrastructure are forcing people from their homes and threatening prolonged interruptions to heating, electricity and water supplies. The UN refugee agency warns that long-range missile and drone attacks expose civilians to danger across the country, including communities far from the front line.

Millions face the prospect of colder homes and disrupted essential services, with 10.8 million people inside Ukraine needing humanitarian assistance. Evacuations from front-line areas have increased significantly, and UNHCR expects displacement within the country to continue. Older people and people with disabilities account for a substantial share of those fleeing, making accessible transport, accommodation and continued care especially important.

Almost 5.2 million refugees from Ukraine remain across Europe, where protection arrangements have helped families rebuild their lives since the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Growing employment and school enrolment demonstrate the benefits of access to national services and opportunities to contribute to host communities. After four and a half years of displacement, pressure on households and host countries, alongside rising hostility towards refugees in parts of Europe, threatens that progress.

Attacks threaten aid delivery and force more evacuations

UNHCR and its Ukrainian NGO partners provide emergency shelter support, legal assistance, mental health counselling and cash assistance to people affected by the war. Between 1 September and 14 October, ten security incidents affected their personnel or operations, including drone and aerial strikes on or near humanitarian teams, offices, warehouses and clearly marked aid vehicles. These incidents endangered workers and damaged essential equipment, prompting UNHCR to call on Russia to stop attacks on civilians and respect the protection of humanitarian personnel and assets.

Since January 2026, UNHCR-supported transit centres have received more than 136,000 evacuees, around 70 per cent more than the nearly 80,000 recorded at sites in front-line communities during 2025. Those figures capture only part of the displacement, because many people leaving dangerous areas never seek assistance at transit facilities. Almost 40 per cent of those forced to flee are older people, and a significant number have disabilities, increasing the need for support tailored to their circumstances.

Refugee inclusion brings gains in employment and education

European countries initially provided rapid access to protection and assistance, with Temporary Protection and similar arrangements giving millions of refugees legal status, rights and essential services. Support has increasingly focused on employment, enrolment in national systems and greater financial independence, helping refugees establish more stable lives. An inter-agency survey covering nine host countries found that 67 per cent of adult Ukrainian refugees were employed in 2025 and 84 per cent of refugee children attended national schools.

Refugee employment supports host economies through a larger workforce, household spending and tax contributions, giving inclusion benefits beyond individual families. Deloitte research estimated that Ukrainian refugees generated 2.4 per cent of Poland's GDP in 2025, equivalent to approximately US$24.4 billion. These findings show the contribution refugees can make when they have access to work, education and public services.

Housing gaps and growing hostility put progress under pressure

Affordable housing remains difficult to secure for many Ukrainian refugees, and employment often fails to match their skills and qualifications. Older people, people with disabilities, single-parent households and others in vulnerable circumstances face additional barriers that require continued assistance. UNHCR says maintaining solidarity with refugees and the communities hosting them is essential as financial pressures, anti-refugee rhetoric and hostility grow.

The inter-agency paper Regional Refugee Response Plan for the Ukraine Situation 2022–2026: From emergency response to solutions reviews collective achievements, lessons and remaining challenges to inform the next phase of protection and inclusion. A companion report, Advancing Inclusion, Closing Gaps, presents findings from the 2025 Socio-Economic Insights Survey across nine host countries, covering inclusion, health, education and protection to support policy decisions. UNHCR's appeal calls for sustained engagement to protect these gains and support Ukrainians facing an uncertain winter.