Andalusia election test for Spain's new conservative leader

Polls also show the current junior coalition party, the Citizens party, would fail to win any seats, mirroring its demise in recent regional elections elsewhere. If the PP falls short of a majority, Feijoo may be forced to show his hand regarding his willingness to work with the far-right Vox party before the next national election that is due by the end of 2023.

Voters in Spain's Andalusia go to the polls on Sunday in a first electoral test for the new leader of the opposition People's Party, which is aiming for its first outright win in the country's most populous region ahead of a national poll in 2023.

Andalusia, with 8.5 million inhabitants, was for 40 years a stronghold of the main socialist party, which ceded power in 2018 to a conservative coalition government led by the People's Party (PP). The region's conservative President Juan Manuel Moreno has called a snap election to take advantage of favourable polls and the arrival of the PP's new national leader Alberto Núñez Feijoo.

According to the latest poll published by GAD3 in the newspaper ABC, the PP was on course to double its number of votes from 2018 and would win 53 seats, two short of an absolute majority in the 109-seat regional parliament. Polls also show the current junior coalition party, the Citizens party, would fail to win any seats, mirroring its demise in recent regional elections elsewhere.

If the PP falls short of a majority, Feijoo may be forced to show his hand regarding his willingness to work with the far-right Vox party before the next national election that is due by the end of 2023. Vox, which opposes immigration and campaigns to repeal a law banning Franco-era symbols and legislation inspired by feminism, has already said it wants to be part of a coalition government with the PP in Andalusia.

The far-right party entered regional government in Spain for the first time in 2022, in coalition with the PP in Castille-Leon. But the controversial decision to work with the far-right was taken by the previous PP leader. The new conservative leader comes from Galicia, one of the few regions in Spain where Vox has not achieved parliamentary representation, and has tried to distance himself from the far-right with a moderate stance.

The left-wing parties contesting the election in Andalusia, which are very fragmented, have already said they will not make it easier for the PP to form a government without the far-right, which may push Feijoo to strike his first pact with Vox.

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